- Israel showed it could destroy a key part of Iran’s air defense with a single missile.
- The damaged S-300 is the most advanced air defense system Iran has acquired from Russia.
- Iran must deploy better air defenses, like Russia’s S-400, to stand a chance against a barrage.
In the early hours of April 19, Israel sent a message to Iran with an air-launched ballistic missile that destroyed a critical part of its air defense network: a radar belonging to one of its advanced Russian S-missiles. 300.
The Israeli missile made a direct hit and the next day Iran tried to cover up the damage with an inferior replacement radar, the footage showed. got by the Economist. The incident in the city of Isfahan could force Tehran to improve its air defense, possibly with more advanced Russian systems, to defend against the possibility of larger Israeli missile attacks.
“I think it is abundantly clear that Iran is woefully unprepared for such attacks unless it receives significant assistance from Russia, which it has failed to do so far,” said Arash Azizi, lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University and author of “The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the United States, and Iran’s global ambitions” he told Business Insider.
“The attacks will also have provided valuable operational information to the Iranians in charge of missile defense as they will have a better idea of their limitations,” Azizi said.
Israel is known to possess ballistic missiles that it can launch from combat aircraft. An example is its 15 feet long Missile Rampage. Weighing 1,200 pounds, the supersonic missile can hit targets up to 186 miles away. Great Britain has expressed interest by purchasing it.
Freddy Khoueiry, global security analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at risk intelligence firm RANE, believes it is possible that Israel used the Rampage on April 19. However, he noted that missile debris discovered in neighboring Iraq suggests it was more likely that Israel used the Rampage. Blue Sparrow missiles, which have a claimed range of 1,250 miles.
“In any event, debris in Iraq and local reports of fighter jet activity over Iraqi airspace that same night suggest that Israeli fighter jets may have fired missiles at a closer distance to Iranian borders,” Khoueiry told BI.
Although Iranian air defenses failed to stop the Israeli strike, they have improved significantly in recent years. In the beginning of the 2000s, Iranian radars were unable to detect American and Israeli drones operating in Iranian airspace. Even large U.S. tankers participating in missions in Afghanistan and Iraq have flown over parts of Iranian airspace undetected.
An Israeli F-16I fighter flew over the border area with southern Lebanon on March 12, 2024. Jalaa Marey/Getty Images
Everything changed. Iran beaten down a sophisticated American Global Falcon RQ-4A high-altitude flying surveillance drone in 2019, claiming it was using its indigenous 3rd Khordad system.
“In recent years, Iran has invested heavily in its air defense capabilities, but at the same time it knows that this may not be enough against technologically advanced Israeli or American weapons in a potential conflict,” Khoueiry said.
This is one of the reasons why Iran has placed its most sensitive facilities in mountainous regions.
“I think the April 19 Isfahan strike will likely cause the Iranians to think more about how to counter Israeli radar evasion systems by improving their radar capabilities while continuing to improve their air defenses, particularly because we “We haven’t seen the best Iranian air defense equipment on display,” Khoueiry said.
The S-300PMU-2 is the most advanced air defense system that Iran has acquired from Russia. After the Isfahan strike, it is likely that Tehran will conclude that it needs more advanced Russian systems, such as the S-400 that some say it is demanding.
Khoueiry does not rule out the possibility that Iran will pursue the S-400, given its “more advanced stealth capabilities” and ability to track aircraft at low altitudes. These capabilities are “crucial” to defending vital Iranian installations, especially given the failure of the S-300 to intercept Israeli weapons on April 19.
Clemson University’s Azizi says the S-400 acquisition remains “crucial” for Iran and is one of its “best bets.” He therefore expects Tehran to continue to put pressure in this direction.
“I think the April episode will certainly have convinced the Iranians that they need to be more serious in their request for help from Russia,” Azizi said. “But I think they ultimately have very little leverage unless Moscow wants to play against Israel and the West by helping Iran.”
Iran has a strong card to play. It became a major supplier to Russia’s war against Ukraine, via thousands of Shahed munitions and hundreds short-range ballistic missiles. But that may not be enough.
“Moscow will be the key decision-maker here, not Tehran,” Azizi said. “Drone assistance is important for Moscow but not essential.”
Iran may have a homegrown solution in the form of indigenous systems, such as the 3rd Khordad which shot down a Global Hawk and the Bavar 373.
“In theory, these Iranian systems should do better than the S-300 given that the Iranians upgraded the Bavar 373 in 2022, claiming it is now a competitor to the S-400,” Khoueiry said. “In practice, it could go either way, depending on how many Israeli missiles would hypothetically be launched and from where.”
Khoueiry believes that early detection by Iranian air defenses could give these Iranian-made systems “a better chance” against Israeli missiles.
Conversely, Azizi believes that it is “unlikely” that these systems will fare better than their Russian counterparts.
“These are impressive systems that Iran designed itself, but they are ultimately no match for Israel’s significant offensive capabilities,” Azizi said.
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