How Harris and Trump are positioning their campaigns

An underdog, by definition, is a contender who has little chance of winning.

In the final stretch of the presidential race, it is the role of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign that wants to claim this position.

Harris, her campaign and allies have used the term repeatedly to describe her candidacy, marking a shift in rhetoric from just months ago, when President Joe Biden was leading the race. Biden made a bold prediction then: “Let me say this as clearly as I can: I’m still in the race!” he said. “I will beat Donald Trump.”

Campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon had repeatedly expressed confidence in Biden’s victory, despite lingering concerns about his age and signs of slow fundraising. This happened notably a week before the fateful presidential debate, when she declared her victory to the media outlet Puck: “We are going to win.”

Then, two days after Biden’s debate performance plunged the party into chaos, she stuck to her message: “I say with full confidence that we will win.”

Now it is O’Malley Dillon who is leading the advertising campaign around the new Democratic nominee, trying to portray the candidate who has better poll numbers, more money and more ground troops than Biden and who has been within a heartbeat of the presidency for three and a half years as the underdog in the race.

Trump’s team calls the framing ridiculous.

“Kamala Harris is not the outsider, nor is she the candidate of the future. Kamala Harris is currently the vice president of the United States,” Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said.

“She is responsible for the problems that the American people are facing right now… She deserves to be re-elected.”

Trump took a radically different path, already declaring victory.

“We don’t need votes. We have more votes than anybody has ever had,” Trump said at an event in Detroit two months ago. He displayed similar confidence on Aug. 30, at a rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.

“We should have a resounding victory. We should crush them,” Trump said. “You know, we win the state, we win everything.”

But within the Trump campaign, one official said that while he exudes confidence, no one is taking the race for granted. That’s why Trump gives multiple media interviews each week. and organize rallies, she said.

“We believe President Trump has the wind in his sails in this race, but no one is sitting back in their headquarters and relaxing right now,” Leavitt said. “We are working around the clock to win this election.”

Part of Harris’s strategy is to lower expectations after Labor Day. It’s also tied to the reality of the tight, rushed schedule in which Harris must introduce herself to voters while making major decisions like choosing a vice president and hosting a national convention within weeks of taking over as the front-runner.

But some things are deeper.

During a live event at the Democratic National Convention with Politico, O’Malley Dillon revealed what keeps him up at night.

“Honestly, it’s complacency, right? I really feel like you could look at this moment and be so energized and say, ‘We’ve got it,’ but we don’t. We don’t. It’s going to be an extraordinarily close race. I can’t say that enough,” she said.

“We are a polarized nation and we are going through difficult times, and despite everything that is happening in this country, Donald Trump still has more support than he has ever had,” she added.

Democrats have been stung by overconfidence before: During Hillary Clinton’s campaign against Trump in 2016, the party thought it had victory in its pocket, only to see its great blue wall of states crumble.

Harris has reinvigorated Democrats and quickly made up ground lost under Biden.

But for all the packed rallies, massive fundraising, growing enthusiasm and spikes in volunteerism the campaign has enjoyed since Biden endorsed Harris on July 21, the fundamentals of the race have not changed.

Victory will be decided between a few key states and, as today’s polls show, it remains undecided.

“Democrats are terrified. It’s a tight race. Everybody understands that,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder and executive vice president of the center-left group Third Way. “Democrats are very, very worried. It’s not because of anything Harris has done, she hasn’t made a single mistake yet. It’s because the risk of losing is so catastrophic.

True, Harris’s candidacy ended Trump’s plans to expand his electoral map into states like New Jersey. Instead, it was Harris who allowed Democrats to expand into places like typically Republican North Carolina, where Trump’s campaign is now forced to spend money.

But so far, most polls show both candidates within the margin of error in each of the two battlegrounds.

“Nobody has a clear advantage here, that’s for sure,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth Poll. After the Trump-Biden debate, Murray said Trump was showing signs of gaining ground in national and state polls. Harris’s entry “brought the campaign back to pretty much even ground,” he said.

Pennsylvania is particularly worrisome for Democrats. Depending on the states and their electoral clout, they would have to win two or maybe even three to offset the key blue wall state. Democrats are adamant that the Keystone State is the most worrisome, in large part because of Trump’s strong appeal among rural white men.

Murray said among the trends he’s tracking is where the older white vote that stuck with Biden is ultimately gravitating.

“That was one of the most interesting findings when Biden was campaigning — when we were asking about candidates’ mental and physical stamina, their ability to do the job — is that senior voters stuck with Biden on this issue,” he said.

Bradley Beychok, co-founder of the American Bridge Democratic Party, described Harris as “on the rise” but remained sober about the party’s prospects.

“It’s a step backwards,” he added.

“I can’t criticize her if she and her campaign say they’re underdogs, because some models see her as a slight underdog,” Beychok said. “I can say she’s a slight underdog. I can say it’s a toss-up. I can say she’s a slight favorite.”