Photo: Andrew Harnik / Getty Images
Almost exactly 10 Years ago, as the United States was dawn to seal a historic agreement to curb the nuclear program of Iran, Barack Obama offered a warning to those who worked to disembark the agreement: “Let us not chop the words: the choice that we are confronted with is finally between diplomacy and a form of war-perhaps not tomorrow, perhaps three months from now, but soon.”
Obama concluded the agreement in 2015, but less than Three years laterDuring the first term of President Donald Trump, the United States unilaterally violated the agreement. After a short period of time, the agreement was dead.
Then came the war that Obama had predicted. This month, Israel has sparked missile dams, bombs and drone attacks against Iranian military facilities, nuclear facilities and residential districts. Iran has undertaken reprisal strikes in Israel.
It would be easy to blame this war almost entirely on Trump and Netanyahu.
The United States, after a Apparent feint At diplomacy, then entered the fray, making a massive bombing against Iranian nuclear installations – and raise the spectrum of a total regional conflict or, worse, a world war. Fortunately, the participation of the United States was limited and, after 12 days of exchanges, Israel and Iran accepted a cease-fire.
It would be easy to blame this war almost entirely on Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu for decades sought to trap THE WE in a Direct war with Iran – And in Trump, he seemed to have found one, just as Trump agreed to the catastrophic demand from Netanyahu that the United States was tearing up the agreement on Obama Iran.
Although this is indeed true, this may leave the hook of people who could have restored Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran and helped to avoid this new nightmare scenario.
A blame for war, for dead civilians and for the instability formulated on the lives of people in the Middle East belongs to President Joe Biden.
Biden, who was vice-president of Obama, wasted the possibility of correcting the course and avoiding the crisis that takes place today.
Puffed opportunity
When Biden came into office in 2021, he had a laundry list of Trump’s excess that he is committed to canceling his efforts to restore normality. He has proven himself on some of these promises – ending policies such as the ban on travel and the return to the climate of Paris with a pen on the first day of his presidency.
Biden’s commitment to return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, according to his advisers, are more complicated. The new president and his team suggested that a prerequisite for a return to the United States would be that Iran addresses the measures it had taken to extend its nuclear work in retaliation for the United States which violated the agreement, rather than the United States to restore its own compliance with the obligations it had raped. This caused back and forth weeks and took time to decrease the clock of negotiations that none of the parties could afford.
The delay has not only affected the prospects of an agreement itself, but had a broader effect on regional policy. Many observers thought that the new administration included the need to move quickly to restore the agreement before quickly approaching the Iranian presidential elections that summer. The elections could return the harsh downs that had vigorously opposed to the nuclear agreement in power.
Understanding as much, Biden was sure to seize the initiative – and would not fall into the advice of those who claim that the president should “use Trump’s lever effect” to force a “better deal”. Admittedly, Biden would not prevent his time and allow opponents of the agreement to attach their hands to him.
Rather than urgently restoring American commitments under the agreement, Biden ordered his advisers to “keep the Middle East of his office” while he focused on his domestic agenda.
Advisers like Brett McGurk, who pleaded and celebrated the entry of America into the War of Israel against Iran against the CNN in the past two weeks, have respected themselves. The negotiations began, but they were circular, mined by the faces of the congress and the Israeli sabotage – including an Israeli attack in 2021 Iranian Natanz nuclear installation Just as the negotiations were finally taking place.
In the end, the Biden team missed the window for an agreement.
In the end, the Biden team missed the window for an agreement before a severe criticism of the nuclear agreement of origin was sworn as Iranian president. Iran nuclear program Advanced to a giant, Iran becoming capable of producing enough materials enriched for a nuclear weapon in a few weeks.
At the end of Biden’s mandate, his advisers did not debate a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue, but rather debated their own military strikes on Iran to put its program back.
The nuclear crisis – imminently resolved under Biden – was rather aggravated throughout his mandate, then given to Trump, who actedly actedly acted in nuclear negotiations with Iran but finally gave in to Netanyahu.
Now hundreds of innocent people have been killed, destruction has been formulated in Israel and Iran, and we are much worse in terms of Iran’s capacities – and intentions – than 10 years ago.
One way to limit Iran
Time will tell us if Trump will embrace the direction of diplomacy, he briefly demonstrated earlier this year, or if he gets closer to Biden’s without fictitious deference to Netanyahu.
This last lesson brings enormous risks – like causing the United States in an endless campaign to send bombers more and more to “mow the lawn” in Iran because diplomatic options, such as the Obama agreement, were left in tatters.
At the time of her nuclear contract, Obama was attacked by Hawks for having “launched the can” because she simply withdrew the nuclear capacities of Iran of 15 years.
Flash forward today, and these same figures applaud Trump’s military strikes on Iran as a decisive victory, even if most estimates say that Israel and the 12 -day American campaign only withdraw the Iranian nuclear program as little as a month.
And unlike the Obama agreement which imposed permanent restrictions and intrusive inspections on each element of the Iranian enrichment program, officials of the Trump administration, whose vice-president JD Vance, recognize that the attack on the attack did not eliminate the Iranian nuclear program but prompted Iran to move its highly enriched uranium stock.
The lessons here are clear. Obama was confirmed. The only demonstrable way to concretely limit the nuclear program of Iran is by diplomacy. To fail to conclude an agreement is to risk war-perhaps another disastrous American war in the Middle East.
We must hold everyone to accounts whose limited imagination – whose inability to take the necessary measures in the face of pro -Israeli pressure – has prevented a nuclear agreement. If we want to learn the lessons of this 12 -day war, this list must include Joe Biden.
