Houthi pledge to limit attacks on ships prompts new security assessment

In response to the Houthis’ pledge to cease attacks on non-Red Sea vessels following the Gaza war ceasefire, a global maritime security industry leader issued Monday a new threat assessment. Ambrey suggested that the region around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could enter a period of reduced danger for ships transiting the area. if – and it’s a big one if — the Houthis are indeed keeping their word.

The Houthi-linked Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), which serves as an intermediary between Houthi forces and commercial shipping operators, sent an email to the shipping industry on Sunday saying it would no longer attack ships linked to the United States and the United Kingdom in the process. of the ceasefire that came into force on January 19 with the exchange of three Israeli hostages held by Hamas and dozens of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The HOCC added that the Houthis would also stop attacking ships linked to Israel “once all phases of the agreement have been fully implemented.”

This is a reference to phase 2 of the ceasefire, which is expected to come into force in approximately five weeks. The letter does not mention any other nations.

Given that the rebel group has attacked ships with questionable ties to Israel, it remains unclear how they will make this distinction in the future. Regardless, the Houthis say they will resume kinetic actions against US or UK-connected vessels if the militant group’s assets and personnel are subjected to further airstrikes.

“We affirm that in the event of aggression against the Republic of Yemen by the United States of America, the United Kingdom or the usurping Israeli entity, sanctions will be reinstated against the aggressor state(s),” the HOCC said. . continued. “You will be promptly informed of these measures if they are implemented. »

You can see one of these ship attacks in the following video.

Ambrey suggested on Monday that the HOCC proclamation would have a positive impact on non-Israeli shipping if the Houthis follow through on their promise.

“The coming weeks will provide evidence that the Houthis will follow their stated intention,” Ambrey said. “During this period, the threat to all shipping is reduced, with the exception of Israeli-owned and Israeli-flagged vessels. However, this situation risks worsening if the Houthis consider that Israel is violating the ceasefire agreement.

Ambrey also assessed that “shipping with ties to Israel and Israeli commerce is at greater risk than shipping owned by the United States and the United Kingdom, as the ceasefire remains fragile and negotiations secondary schools continue. Military action by the Houthis in response to an alleged violation of the ceasefire agreement by Israel remains possible and would most likely have a priority impact on Israeli-affiliated shipping.

Ambrey urged caution over Houthi promises.

“The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has issued a warning: the maritime industry should be skeptical of recent Houthi claims,” the company noted, referring to an information-sharing effort led by the Kingdom -United on Houthi attacks.

Houthi claims, particularly those of attacks on US or British warships, are often made without foundation. The most recent example came on Sunday when the Houthis claimed to have targeted the USS. Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group for the eighth time. Over the past year, the Houthis have claimed successful attacks on U.S. Navy ships, which never took place.

“We don’t have anything operational to provide,” a U.S. official said. The war zone in response to our question about the veracity of the latest Houthi attack.

Attacks on ships began in November 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians following the last war between Israel and Gaza. They forced ships to avoid the Suez Canal to travel a much longer route around Africa, increasing freight costs by almost $200 billion. Houthi attacks sank two ships, damaged many others, caused the deaths of four sailors and led to numerous hostage-takings after a ship was seized. The Houthis’ campaign in the Red Sea has also led to nearly constant military engagements with the United States and its allies, including airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and the suppression of the militant group’s frequent missile, aerial drone and drone boat attacks on commercial and military vessels.

Shipping company Hapag-Lloyd said The war zone it is too early to say whether they will resume navigation via the Suez Canal.

“We will continue to closely monitor and analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea,” said Tim Seifert, spokesman for shipping company Hapag-Lloyd. The war zone Monday. “Otherwise, the following applies without change: We will return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so.”

Aside from the effects on commercial shipping, the U.S. military will benefit significantly from any real reduction in Houthi belligerence in the Red Sea region. Navy ships – which have had to maintain a constant presence in this area – have spent hundreds of costly munitions to eliminate Houthi threats. This forced these ships to leave the area to resupply. Constant patrols in the Red Sea region have come at the expense of the presence elsewhere in the world and have put a strain on ships and crews. In addition to fighting at sea, US Navy air assets, as well as cruise missiles, as well as US Air Force and Royal Air Force aircraft, have carried out repeated strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Israel also shelled the rebel group from the air.

A full breakdown of the cost of each of the Navy’s missiles is shown in TWZ’s exclusive video below:

It is unclear how seriously the United States and its allies take this new Houthi commitment. We have contacted US Central Command, the UK Ministry of Defense and the European Union maritime security operation Aspides for further details. It is also a question of how much ammunition the Houthis still have after nearly 16 months of blockades and numerous strikes against their weapons storage areas in Yemen. Iran’s ability to resupply them with components critical to these weapons is also in question after a brutal year for their proxy investments abroad. You can read all about the Houthis’ anti-ship arsenal here.

Adding to uncertainty over any future U.S. response to the Iran-backed Houthis, Donald Trump took over the presidency today. He has previously pledged to restart his “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran and its proxies, and when asked about possible military strikes, he responded with an ominous: “anything can happen.”

As we have noted in the past, the conflict that began on October 7, 2023 has radically reshaped the geopolitics of the region. Israel decimated Hezbollah in Lebanon, and by going after proxy groups like these, it significantly weakened Iran’s influence in the region, a dynamic reinforced by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

So, overall, when it comes to the Houthis and the incredibly complex security situation in the region, despite all promises to the contrary, magnet ships and military forces will have to take a “wait and see” approach to their sudden decision. towards de-escalation.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com