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Holzmann (ECB): a rate hike is justified if no surprises arise

  • Inflation is not yet clear
  • The ECB is lagging behind and can assess its policy once at 4%
  • Should start a debate on the end of PEPP reinvestments

He seems to be trying to push for such a move, but obviously not all ECB policymakers share this view. In terms of market price, this is a real draw for September at this point. The odds of a 25 basis point rate hike are currently pegged at around 45%, with the remaining 55% pricing in no rate hike for the next month.


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