The year took place in 2010. Donald Trump played in season 3 of “The Celebrity Apprentice”. Obamacare has grinned by the congress. Justin Bieber – With the help of Ludacris – marked his success, “Baby”.
And in California, Arnold Schwarzenegger finished his second and last mandate as governor.
Three days in 2011, the celebrity of Hollywood left its duties, marking the last time that a republican held the best job of Sacramento.
Could that change next year?
Jumping into the government race this week, the conservative commentator Steve Hilton gave the GOP his second major candidate – alongside the Sheriff of the Riverside County, Chad Bianco – signaling an increased feeling of the opportunity for a party that has not exercised significant power in the State Capitol since “Avatar” reprinted to the Box office.
Not that a GOP control is likely. Only the most duly punch support would give Republicans up to 50-50 chances of succeeding Gavin Newsom.
Some would say that there is a greater probability that JD Vance will be elected the next Pope.
Kevin Spillane, a republican strategist who is not involved in the GOP competition, thinks that the party “would need a lot of breaks” to elect a governor in 2026. He put the chances of no better than 35% to 40% – however, as Spillane noted, it is “always higher than we have had a long time.”
What is basic republican perspectives?
“It’s homeless,” said Spillane. “It is public security. It is affordability. These are taxes. It’s gas prices. It is an energy policy. I mean, these are just problems of bread and butter. ”
If Kamala Harris decides to run, Spillane thinks that it would only improve the chances of the GOP to grasp the governor.
“You will be able to exploit the collection of national republican funds,” he said. Small donors. Major contributors. “There is obviously a lot of animosity on the republican side towards her. She, with Gavin Newsom, is in a way considered as symbols of the multiple policy failures of California.”
But Garry South, a democratic strategist who helped elect the governor of Gray Davis, is very skeptical.
“No chance,” he said about Hilton, Bianco or any other Republican assuming the governor in January 2027. “Zilch. Zero.”
South underlined the political profile of the State: only 25% of registered voters are republicans. Democrats represent 45% and most of those who are not affiliated – about another quarter of the electorate – tend to look democratic.
“The figures are not added,” South said. “Simply get a calculator and do the calculation.”
He conceded that the Democrats who present themselves to the Governor do not campaign in the best of cases, nor do not benefit from a lot of good will. After almost a decade and a half of regime at a Sacramento party, there is no exhaust responsibility for the deep problems of California.
“There is clearly discomfort about the situation of the homeless, which seems to be continuously uncontrollable. There are concerns about crime,” South said. “But (voters) do not look at the Republicans and see potential solutions.”
At least not since 2006, the last time the GOP won an office at the level of the state.
That said, foreign things have happened. Witness of the condemned criminal and scofflaw twice occupying the White House.
Matt Shupe is director of communications at the California Republican Party, which means that his work is to see that the supporter hopes eternal spring. He said he didn’t have to grow the neck too hard to imagine a viable gop path to the governor.
While the Republicans are late in the registration of voters, he noted that it is not unusual for candidates to win 40% or more of the state -of -scale vote. In 2022, Lanhee Chen – one of the younger and more attractive republican candidates in recent years – received almost 45% of the vote in an unsuccessful offer for the state controller. Given the misfortune with the Sacramento status quo, suggested Shupe, it is not impossible to see a republican invent this last land and win a majority.
“Things like gay marriage and abortion” – that Democrats have used for years as a baton against the Republicans – “are consecrated in our State Constitution and are not going,” said Shupe. “And assuming that a republican was elected governor, they always have the checks and the balance of a majority or super majority democratic legislature.
“So I think that opens the will of people to vote republican just to try something new, which is desperately necessary.”
With Trump to return to the White House and the economy on the skids, the Democrats will surely paint their familiar game book and will seek to transform the governor’s breed into referendum on unpopular president. (Important advance: no one knows what type of form will take place in the economy in November 2026.)
Anyway, Shupe has maintained that these attacks will fall flat.
The average Californian voter, he said, “is tired of this war against Trump. This does not mean that they are all supporters of Trump wearing Maga.
Rob Stutzman, a republican strategist who worked in the administration of Schwarzenegger, is less optimistic than Shupe.
“This does not mean that Republicans cannot become more competitive,” said Stutzman, or improve their general position in California. A candidate for the credible governor could help the party by stimulating participation – potentially lift the candidates for the congress and the State – and by laying the foundations for a successful race for the governor’s manor during the next decade.
Asked the probability that a republican won in 2026, Stutzman offered about 1% of chance – “for the same reason that a democrat will not be the governor of Idaho (Ruby -Red) next year.”
Which – if you look at the good republican side – is not zero.
California Daily Newspapers
