Here’s why Biden’s campaign is planning a big push in North Carolina in 2024: NPR

President Biden talks about his efforts to expand manufacturing jobs during a March 28 visit to Wolfspeed Inc., a semiconductor maker in Durham, North Carolina

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

hide caption

toggle caption

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

President Biden talks about his efforts to expand manufacturing jobs during a March 28 visit to Wolfspeed Inc., a semiconductor maker in Durham, North Carolina

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

En route to a manufacturing event in Durham, North Carolina, earlier this year, incoming Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel delivered a big speech to President Biden.

Nickel’s message to Biden on the Air Force One trip: Please compete in North Carolina in 2024.

“If the campaign goes full steam ahead, we can win North Carolina, but we need that support and that investment,” Nickel told the president. “The votes are there; we just have to get them out to vote.”

Nickel said Biden was receptive: “He knew full well that was the state he lost closest to in the last election.”

Now the Biden campaign has come out with a strategy note saying, among other things, that it aims to win the state in 2024.

This is a state that has eluded Democrats in the past.

President Biden takes selfies after a March 28 visit to Wolfspeed Inc., a semiconductor maker in Durham, North Carolina

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

hide caption

toggle caption

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

President Biden takes selfies after a March 28 visit to Wolfspeed Inc., a semiconductor maker in Durham, North Carolina

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

Obama won the state in 2008. He’s been red ever since

In the 2020 presidential election, it took over a week for the North Carolina race to finally be called, with former President Donald Trump ultimately winning the state by 1.3%. In a year when Georgia and Arizona swung to the Democrats, North Carolina stayed just out of reach.

“We really expect North Carolina to be competitive” in 2024, said Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for the Biden campaign.

At this point in the election cycle, campaigns often talk about expanding the map, winning states that their party lost in the previous election cycle or never won. A Democratic presidential candidate has not won North Carolina since 2008, when Barack Obama won the Electoral College in a landslide.

Munoz said the campaign would increase job creation and federal investments under Biden, something the president himself did when he visited the state in March. And the campaign is also betting that reproductive rights are a major issue. The Republican supermajority in the state legislature recently passed a 12-week abortion ban.

“It demonstrates the stark contrast between leadership and choice that the people of North Carolina will have in 2024,” Munoz said of the ban. “A president and a vice-president who will work to codify deer in federal law – or one of MAGA’s extreme Republicans who supports a nationwide ban.”

Munoz said the Democratic National Committee, which closely coordinates Biden’s re-election campaign, worked with the state party to mobilize volunteers against the ban — a first look at the kind of coordination they have planned for 2024.

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper walks to the podium to speak at an event hosted by President Biden in Durham, North Carolina

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

hide caption

toggle caption

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper walks to the podium to speak at an event hosted by President Biden in Durham, North Carolina

Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

Democratic North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper vetoed the bill, but his veto was quickly overridden by the legislature.

“A strong majority in North Carolina doesn’t like abortion bans, especially like the one passed by this legislature,” Cooper said in an interview with NPR. “But on top of that, they said they’ll be back for more next time. So it’s clear that North Carolinians will be motivated to try and protect women’s reproductive freedom.”

There are plenty of races on the line in the state in 2024

In 2024, there will also be a hotly contested gubernatorial race, and the balance of power within the state legislature will be at stake. Cooper has reached the end of his term, but he is actively engaged in the next few years. elections. He, too, made a personal pitch to Biden to compete in the state. He said he also previously called former President Obama, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win in the state, to help.

Cooper said the muscle that comes with a presidential campaign could help move the poll up and down. This includes both funding and organizing local campaigns.

“There will be a strong Democratic effort from top to bottom in North Carolina and with the resources of the coordinated campaign and the Biden campaign here, I think nothing will stop us,” Cooper said.

But 2024 is very different from 2008

But Republican consultant Jonathan Felts said he viewed Biden, with his low approval ratings, as a potential drag on Democrats, joking that Republicans were eager to see Biden campaign with Democratic candidates everywhere. the state.

Felts is confident for a reason. In 2022, he was the senior adviser to the current senator. Ted Budd’s winning campaign. Budd’s Democratic opponent, Cheri Beasley, has carefully avoided appearing with Biden or Vice President Harris. Ultimately, Democrats poured resources into other states where they had a better chance of winning Senate seats.

When Obama won the state in 2008, he had a lot going for him. A late competitive primary election meant Democrats had made a huge investment in campaign planning in North Carolina, something they normally wouldn’t do so far from Election Day. Obama had a ton of campaign money and ran a solid campaign, while Republican nominee Sen. John McCain struggled, said Felts, who at the time was White House political director to George W. Bush.

“With all those advantages, Barack Obama won North Carolina by a whopping 0.32%,” Felts said. “The Democrats are starting out at a huge disadvantage, and the smart ones know it. And so if they want to waste their money here, God bless them.”

A Trump campaign spokesperson said Biden’s efforts to compete in North Carolina were less about expanding the map and more about fearing losing in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College, said he’s seen the movie before. Some 18 months before an election, campaigns often talk about a big game.

“Election after election, Democrats continue to bemoan the fact that they can’t win North Carolina,” Bitzer said. “How many times do you have to bang your head against a brick wall and think you’re going to get a different result?”

Bitzer said Democrats would need to increase the turnout of black voters and young voters to win, which they have failed to do in the past. But Democrats insist this time will be different.

Be p. Nickel, who won their 2022 race by 3 percentage points, is counting on that. “I’m just trying to get re-elected,” Nickel said. “If they do everything to get people to vote, run a really good coordinated campaign…that’s worth 3 points, you know, for someone like me.”