Top line
Vice President Kamala Harris is emerging as the most likely replacement for President Joe Biden if he decides to drop out of the race after his potentially decisive debate performance — an unprecedented but increasingly likely scenario that would set off a headlong race among the Democratic Party’s rising stars to become his running mate.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally on June 28, 2024, in Las Vegas. (Bizuayehu) … (+)
Highlights
The names frequently floated as Biden’s top contenders, mostly governors serving as surrogates for the Biden-Harris campaign and who enjoy strong approval ratings in their home states, appear the most likely to be the leading contenders for the running mate position.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has been a vocal defender of the president following the debate backlash and is set to campaign for him in Pittsburgh and New Hampshire in the coming days, but he and other potential options, such as Colorado Governor Jared Polis And Illinois Governor JB Pritzkercould be at a disadvantage in the hypothetical race to replace the vice president since they safely represent blue states.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper campaigned with Harris in North Carolina this week, sparking speculation that he might run alongside her — something former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean told CNN on Thursday he would support, predicting Democrats would win North Carolina as a result (Trump is currently ahead in North Carolina by 6.8 points, according to the Five Thirty Eight polling average).
Rep. Betty McCollum, a Democrat from Minnesota, called on her state’s Democratic governor, Tim Walzto serve as Harris’ running mate while urging Biden to drop out of the race Friday — Walz acknowledged that Biden had a “bad night” in a PBS interview after the debate, and noted that the “Democratic bench is deep” in the discussion over potential replacements, but he defended Biden’s record and stopped short of calling on him to end his reelection bid.
The popular governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshearwho has won his deeply red state twice, is another potential second-place choice on a new Democratic ticket, though Democrats still have little chance of winning Kentucky.
Potential choices like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer And Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro It could also help the party shore up support in key states where Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump, according to polling averages.
Senator Raphael Warnock, Democrat of Georgia., if chosen, could also attract black voters in the key state, where he has proven he can beat Republicans — twice — in closely contested races.
Maryland Governor Wes Moore is another rising star in the Democratic Party, although he has said he will not seek the Democratic nomination this year and has continued to support Biden despite backlash during the debate.
Senator Amy Klobuchar, Democrat of Minnesota., And Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg There are other potential candidates who gained national prominence through their 2020 presidential campaigns.
What should you pay attention to?
Harris would be tasked with choosing a running mate by Aug. 7. Parties typically formally select their nominees at their conventions (the Democratic one begins Aug. 19 in Chicago), but the DNC is holding an early, virtual roll call this year to adhere to a since-amended Ohio law that required nominees to be finalized 90 days before the election, though the Ohio legislature has since extended the deadline.
Key context
For now, a scenario in which Harris replaces Biden and there is a mad scramble to become his running mate is purely hypothetical. Publicly, Biden has said he has no intention of dropping out of the race, and Harris has also expressed unwavering support for his candidacy, despite growing calls for Biden to drop out of the race, including from more than 30 elected Democrats. Biden has begun to privately acknowledge that he may have to drop out of the race, according to multiple media outlets, citing unnamed sources, and Axios reported that some unnamed senior Democrats believe he could drop out as early as this weekend. Biden dispelled those rumors Friday in a statement saying he would be “back on the campaign trail next week” after isolating at his home in Delaware following a COVID-19 diagnosis Wednesday.
Tangent
Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Buttigieg, Pritzker and Klobuchar are all trailing Trump in hypothetical polls, according to a CNN/SSRS poll, but they are all doing better than Biden, who is six points behind the former president. Harris is performing the best of the six, trailing Trump by two points in the polls.
Further reading
Biden in Rescue Mode: Tells Campaign ‘I’m in This Race All the Way’ After Rallying Congressional Allies (Forbes)
Kamala Harris Leads Biden’s Top Alternatives in Polls – Here’s How Polls Rate the President’s Top Replacements (Forbes)
Here Are The Most Likely Democratic Presidential Candidates If Biden Drops Out Of The Campaign — As Heated Debates Spark Calls For Resignation (Forbes)
