Harris sees popularity surge after Biden drops out of race: POLL

Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying a surge in popularity among Americans, just days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed her, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday.

According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos KnowledgePanel, the vice president’s approval rating has climbed to 43 percent, compared to a 42 percent disapproval rating. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll released a week ago, Harris’ approval rating was 35 percent, while 46 percent viewed her unfavorably.

After Biden announced on July 20 that he was ending his re-election campaign, most leading Democrats, including former President Barack Obama, endorsed Harris’ candidacy and she hit the campaign trail.

The vice president, who has secured enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee if all of them honor their pledges when voting, according to ABC News reporting, has seen her approval ratings rise significantly among the politically crucial group of independents.

Forty-four percent of independents have a favorable opinion of Harris, up from just 28% a week ago. Her disfavor rate among independents is now 40%, down slightly from 47% last week.

There was no discussion about whether another Democrat could challenge Harris for the nomination, and a slight majority of Americans, 52%, say she should be the Democratic nominee, according to the poll. That figure rises to 86% among Democrats, compared with 51% of independents and just 20% of Republicans.

Harris has a head start on former President Donald Trump in Americans’ enthusiasm for her. Forty-eight percent of Americans say they would be enthusiastic if Harris were the Democratic nominee. Fewer, 39%, say they would be enthusiastic if Trump were the Republican nominee.

Enthusiasm for Harris as the Democratic candidate is highest among Democrats (88%) and Black Americans (70%). Forty-nine percent of independents express enthusiasm for Harris, while only 31% of independents are enthusiastic about Trump.

Trump’s approval rating has fallen slightly, from 40 percent, measured in the week following the assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention, to 36 percent in the most recent poll.

Trump’s approval rating among independents also fell last week. Twenty-seven percent of independents have a favorable view of Trump, down from 35% last week.

Policy professionals have also paid particular attention to a potential group of “double haters,” those Americans who hold unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump.

In an ABC News/Ipsos poll last week, 15% of Americans had an unfavorable view of both Trump and Biden.

Largely thanks to a surge in Harris’ popularity, the proportion of Americans who dislike both candidates, Harris and Trump, has now been cut in half, to 7%.

Turnout will be crucial in the presidential election next fall, and, compared with an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted in early July, the share of Democrats who say they are absolutely certain they will vote has increased from 70% to 76%. That figure is now roughly equal to the 78% of Republicans who say they are certain they will vote in the November election.

Trump repeatedly criticized Harris and Democrats during his election campaign this week and refused to keep his commitment during the second presidential debate, which ABC News will host in September. He also criticized Biden for ending his campaign.

Biden vowed to focus on the final months of his presidency as he “passed the torch” to Harris in an address to the nation Wednesday night. The president’s poor performance in debates and declining poll numbers have prompted many Democrats to call on Biden to end his campaign.

After the sudden announcement of his withdrawal from the presidential race, Biden’s popularity, while still low, improved to 37%, up five percentage points from the previous week, with an unpopularity rate of 50%, down five percentage points from last week, according to the poll.

Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, didn’t see his approval ratings change last week, but the proportion of Americans who view him unfavorably has increased.

The Ohio senator’s approval rating is 24 percent, similar to last week’s 23 percent. But the proportion of people who view him unfavorably has jumped from 31 percent last week to 39 percent today, the poll found.

When it comes to potential Democratic vice presidential candidates, majorities of Americans either have no opinion or don’t know enough to form one about several names that have been floated in the past week, including Arizona Sen. Mark Kelley, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the poll found.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using Ipsos’ probability-based KnowledgePanel® from July 26-27, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a national probability sample of 1,200 U.S. adults with oversamples of Black and Hispanic respondents weighted to their correct proportions in the general population. The results have a margin of sampling error of 3.0 percentage points, including design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls. Partisan splits are 31-29-29 percent, Democrat-Republican-Independent. See key poll results and methodology details here.

ABC News’ Dan Merkle and Ken Goldstein contributed to this report.