Growing threats from North Korea loom over next US president

Pyongyang’s recent moves have focused attention on what will be one of the first major foreign policy challenges facing the next U.S. president: how to deal with the rapidly growing North Korean nuclear threat.

In a series of rapid developments on Friday:

— North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called for an “exponential increase” in the size of his country’s nuclear arsenal, according to the official KCNA news agency. He made the same call in speeches on Tuesday and the last day of 2022.

— State media has released for the first time photos of the Nuclear Weapons Institute where North Korea processes uranium for nuclear weapons. The photos, which show a sophisticated array of centrifuges, were released as Kim toured the facility.

— North Korea said it tested a new type of 600mm multiple rocket launcher the day before. South Korea said Thursday that Pyongyang had tested several short-range ballistic missiles in waters off its east coast.

The developments come amid increased military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, which is expected to help Pyongyang develop its weapons capabilities in exchange for munitions used in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs has grown steadily and become virtually unchecked over the course of multiple U.S. administrations,” said Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea.

“Whoever is the next American president will have to face a more sophisticated and dangerous North Korean threat.”

Revere said in an interview that the winner of the U.S. election should find ways to weaken the bond between Moscow and Pyongyang “and demonstrate to Beijing that its ‘limitless partnership’ with Russia is a dangerous and misguided path that will bring no benefit” to China.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping declared a “new era” in May in opposition to the United States and reaffirmed the “limitless” partnership first announced days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

While China refrains from supplying Russia with weapons for its war effort, the United States accuses it of delivering electronic components and other dual-use items that keep Moscow’s arms industry afloat.

Pyongyang, for its part, denies having participated in arms transfers to Russia, an act that would violate United Nations sanctions.

But a report released this week by Conflict Armament Research, a U.K.-based group that tracks weapons in armed conflict, said parts from four North Korean missiles were found in Ukraine.

The missiles examined by kyiv are either KN-23 or KN-24, known as the Hwasong-11 series short-range missiles, and are believed to have been used in attacks in July and August, the report said.

Military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow have also been expanded to include tourism, trade, and economic and technical cooperation.

This makes the use of sanctions less effective as a policy tool to counter North Korea’s nuclear buildup, according to Gary Samore, a former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction during the Obama administration.

“It’s not as big a leverage as it used to be because of the relationship between Russia and North Korea,” Samore said. “The United States doesn’t have a very big economic leverage that it could use against North Korea.”

With few obvious policy options available, both presidential candidates — former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris — have largely limited themselves to criticizing each other’s approach without presenting specific plans to roll back the North Korean threat.

During Tuesday night’s televised debate, Harris criticized Trump for exchanging “love letters with Kim Jong Un” during his presidency, while Trump disapproved of the current administration’s handling of the issue, saying, “Look at what’s happening in North Korea.”

During his presidency, Trump held three summits with Kim, but the diplomatic effort ultimately failed when Trump refused Kim’s demand for sanctions relief in exchange for a partial rollback of his nuclear program.

There have been no formal talks between the two countries since, although the Biden administration insists it is open to negotiations without preconditions, a policy Harris could continue if elected.

The Biden administration also maintains that its goal remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, though many experts suggest it is time to recognize that Pyongyang will not give up its weapons and say the international community should focus on containment.

Samore predicted that a Harris administration would continue to say that “as an ultimate goal … the United States seeks long-term denuclearization.”

A second Trump administration, he said, could declare that “denuclearization is no longer possible” and “accept North Korea as a nuclear power.”

Robert Rapson, who served as chargé d’affaires and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 2018 to 2021, said much will depend on how the winner of the election decides to work with its regional allies, South Korea and Japan.

“With no major move toward Pyongyang likely, Harris will need to carefully manage her relationship with her ally Seoul, focusing for the foreseeable future on maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula,” he said.

He added that it was “uncertain at this point” whether Trump would feel compelled to reach out to Kim and whether he would diminish the value of alliances with South Korea and Japan.

Eunjung Cho contributed to this report.