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Purdue-UConn Pick
The top two teams throughout the season meet in the national championship game when the No. 1 seed UConn Huskies take on the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers.
ESPN BET favors UConn by 6.5 points, which seems like a fair spread. At first glance, I wanted to take the Huskies to cover the spread, but major college basketball analytics outlets favored UConn by a lower amount, so I’m going to lean on those resources and take Purdue to cover.
PRO projections from KenPom, BartTorvik, Haslametrics, ShotQualityBets, and Action Network each favor UConn by about two to four points in this matchup, and I can’t just ignore those outlets. And that makes sense when you realize that UConn (36-3) and Purdue (34-4) have similar records, and the Boilermakers have been about as dominant as the Huskies have been in this tournament.
Aside from its six-point victory over Tennessee in the Elite Eight, Purdue won its tournament games by 28, 39, 12, and 13 points (and its 13-point victory over NC State wasn’t as close as the final score indicates this). UConn deserves the love as a dominant team, but the Boilermakers aren’t that far behind.
No one was able to slow down Zach Edey either. The 7-foot-4 big man is averaging 28.0 points, 15.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game on 65.4 percent shooting, and that level of play will always keep Purdue in the game. UConn’s Donovan Clingan will be its toughest defender yet, but Edey has the post moves and soft touch to overcome Clingan’s length.
It’s also important to remember that the Huskies looked a little lethal in their win over Alabama. This wasn’t a wire-to-wire victory like most of UConn’s wins, and Purdue has the outside shooting to take the pressure off Edey.
Make the crowd disappear and take Purdue to cover with ESPN BET promo code NPNEWS.
Pick: Purdue +6.5
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