The senator, Senate GOP campaign leader. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is controlling Republican expectations to win back the majority in the Senate, saying his only goal is to flip two seats despite a Republican-friendly map.
Daines told a group of reporters Thursday that his overarching goal this cycle is to end four years of the party’s minority and that everything else is gravy.
“Fifty-one,” Daines said at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor when asked what his goal was for the cycle. “Because that gives us the majority.”
“I’ll let you all go through and analyze the races and decide what number you want to put on it. … All I know is that what matters most is the majority. We’re focused on fifty-one,” Daines said. “A lot of these races are on the fringes. They are razor thin breeds. This will be a night where things could go either way in a lot of these states. But 51 is our goal and you won’t hear me, between now and November 5, say anything other than 51.”
These comments stand in stark contrast to those shared by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), the former chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who predicted that the party would not only win a majority in 2022, but would pick up more than 55 seats .
But Daines’ remarks put him in line with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who indicated in an interview with Politico that he also isn’t getting over his skis.
“It’s important not to get upset, because it’s remarkable that in the last cycle no incumbent president lost. So what is the message? Quality of candidates,” McConnell said in an interview. “It’s important to keep saying you want 51.” There’s nothing wrong with getting more, but 51 puts you in control. And I think that’s going to be really important, whoever is president elected.
Senate Republicans need to win two seats to reach the magic number of 51, but they can also win back the majority if they win just one seat and former President Trump wins back the White House.
The Republican Party is counting on favorable conditions and a field largely made up of ultra-wealthy candidates, many of whom have business experience, to knock out a few long-shot Democratic candidates in a series of swing states.
This group is led by Tim Sheehy in Montana and Bernie Moreno in Ohio – the reddest seats on the map currently held by Democrats. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) is widely expected to flip the vacant seat in the ruby-red state, with Daines declaring that race “over” after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) opted for the retirement.
The Kentucky Republican, who will step down as leader at the end of this year, also outlined what he believes are the four states that, in addition to West Virginia, could unlock the majority.
“You take polls around Labor Day and start deciding where you’re going to play,” McConnell said. “But we know for sure where we’re going to play right now: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland.”
In Pennsylvania, David McCormick is seeking to deprive Senator Bob Casey (Democrat of Pennsylvania) of a fourth term. Perhaps the party’s biggest surge of these four states is in Maryland, where former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) holds a lead over Rep. Dave Trone (D-Md.) and County Executive by Prince George, Angela Alsobrooks. Maryland, however, is by far the most optimistic state the party is playing in this cycle, with Democrats repeatedly citing a recent poll showing the state’s voters prefer to stay in the majority.
Daines agreed with the quartet of states named by McConnell, but indicated he thought four other contests should be grouped with that group, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. The committee split its fate with former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), businessman Eric Hovde, Sam Brown and Kari Lake, respectively, in those races.
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