The taxation of prices raised by President Trump has put investors in a “motivated” bears market which could become “cyclic”, because the levies on imports in the United States and the threat of reprisals of foreign partners increase the risk of recession, according to Goldman Sachs. “We argue that we are currently in a lowering market motivated by events,” the chief strategist of global actions, Peter Oppenheimer, wrote on Tuesday. “The event in this case was the” Liberation Day “and the strong increase in prices it triggered.” However, it could easily turn into a cyclical bear market given the growing risk of recession, “continued Oppenheimer.” Our economists have lowered their forecasts for growth for GDP 2025 Q4 / q4 to 0.5% and increased their probability of recession to 45%. Bear is defined as a 20% or more drop in stock prices from a recent summit, but they can vary considerably in terms of scope and scale, according to their cause. At the bear market from October 2007 to March 2009 is considered a structural bear market. Cyclical bears markets. These come when there is a downward tendency of the economic cycle, often caused by the increase in interest rates, a recession that results from it, as well as a drop in business profits. The bear market from 1990 from July to October was motivated by cyclical causes. Bear markets motivated by events. These are caused by a unique “shock” which may or may not lead to a recession, and which temporarily makes the economic cycle. An example would be a war or shock of the price of oil, or the coronavirus pandemic which caused the bears market in February 2020. For investors, the evaluation of the strategist suggests that there is a long way to go before the actions do not reach the substance, because the average drop in the cyclic and cyclic bear market is 30%. This would mean that the S&P 500 could at the bottom at 4301, 30% below the top of all time of the reference of 6144 reached on February 19. From the place where the S&P 500 closed on Monday, at 5,062.25, which would always result in another drop by more than 15%. The duration of the bear market could also vary strongly depending on whether the current bear market focuses on events or cyclic. A moderate bear market on events could last eight months and recover in about a year, said Goldman. On the other hand, a cyclical bear market could last two years and take five years for equity prices to be completely recovered. More worrying, the markets of structural bears are the most serious, with average collapses of 60% or more from the duration of three years or more, and take a full decade for prices to return where they were. But even if the current slowdown is found as a milder cyclical bear market, focused on events, Oppenheimer wrote: “We would touch on a new drop”. Get your Pro Live ticket join us on the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Win an advantage with CNBC Pro Live, an exclusive and inaugural event on the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert information is essential. As a CNBC Pro Auto, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive event and in person CNBC Pro Live in the emblematic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join the professional interactive clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You will also have the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talents and other professional subscribers for an hour of exciting cocktail on the legendary soil. Tickets are limited!