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Goldman Sachs US CPI Data Scenarios for the S&P500


JP Morgan with the bait type title:

JP Morgan says a US CPI print at or below 6.9%y/y could see the S&P500 jump up to 10%

Goldman Sachs is a bit more restrained, seeing gains for the S&P above 3% if the US CPI falls below 7%.

After:

  • a reading of 7-7.3% would see 2-3% added to the S&P
  • from 7.4 to 7.7 sees the S&P fall by 1 to 2%
  • above 7.7% sees losses of more than 3%

Goldman Sachs is wary of a big rebound in the S&P, citing a decrease in the extreme bearish stance that existed in the fall. This has significantly unfolded over the past month. According to the analyst:

  • “I’m not recording this to make a bearish statement – again, the current measurement is flat – rather it’s to say that this magnitude of demand is very unlikely to sustain into the first quarter”

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