Goldman Sachs Raises Its Tracking Estimate for Q1 GDP, Projects Core CPI to Rise 0.27% This Week

This week, it’s all about the CPI as we count down to Wednesday’s report.

Goldman Sachs has published its estimate and it is +0.27% on base and +3.7% over one year. For stocks, they see +0.29% and +3.37% over one year.

The fact that everyone is talking about the second decimal place again shows how high the stakes are.

“Our forecasts reflect a 0.3% decline in clothing prices, a 3% drop in airfares and slight declines in new (-0.3%) and used (-0.5%) car prices. ). We expect rents to increase by 0.37% and RELs. ” ” “.

The rent and OER numbers have been particularly confusing to economists and the Fed, something Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee discussed last week.

Goldman Sachs estimates that employment is more dynamic than population growth and has slightly revised upwards its GDP forecasts for the first quarter.

Based on the rules of thumb in our new How to Read the Jobs Report guide, we estimate that the underlying trend pace of job growth is 212,000 – well above our breakeven estimate of 125,000 per month – and that the underlying trend rate of growth in average hourly wages is 212,000. +3.9% annualized. We increased our tracking of first quarter GDP to 2.5%.

The US dollar is currently under some pressure as Treasury yields return some gains.