Gold at Record Highs: a threat to Bitcoin or a chance to recover $ 100,000?

• Gold record summits in the first quarter suggest that the feeling of risk has dominated.
• The BTC has already shown resilience, consolidating near the peaks while gold had jumped.

Analysts speculate that with gold (XAU) reaching new heights in the first quarter and outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) during commercial tensions, a potential summit could transform capital into risk assets.

If this rotation occurs, could BTC take momentum to recover $ 100,000 in Q2?

Potential rotation of gold at the BTC

The overvoltage of 70% of Gold over 16 months pushed its market capitalization to 20.75 billions of dollars, now 1.25 billion of dollars above the 10 best combined active. Consequently, analysts anticipate a change of capital if a first local form.

The Bank of America survey strengthens the idea – 58% of gold overweight fund managers, while only 3% BTC return. This limited the Bitcoin call as a hedge, but a change in positioning could provide an upward momentum.

However, macro-piloted volatility remains a key variable. BTC is negotiated 10% below its New Year Rally, while Gold has extended 17% gains.

In particular, the vertical expansion of XAU is aligned with the corrective phase of BTC, suggesting a liquidity displacement.

In simple terms, out of two distinct retractions on a market scale, gold has printed new peaks of all time while BTC has lost key structural support, signaling the reverse liquidity rotation.

However, the recent gold reducer saw his relative force index (RSI) ending up in the bullish request zone before moving on to a new $ 3,097 ATH.

With RSI now in the “extreme” area of ​​surou, the risk of corrective movement increases.

A drop in gold demand could trigger capital rotation in risk assets. Could this potential change serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin to recover its security story in the second quarter?

The real test for Bitcoin is in advance

The Gold rally of $ 1,820 in October 2023 at $ 3,100 this week is simply historic. In addition to + 16% YTD, it surpasses stocks, currencies and even the US dollar – despite the increase in interest rates.

Traditionally, a stronger USD should push the gold lower. The simple reason? A strong dollar makes the yields of the treasury attractive. But instead, the demand for gold has increased, breaking market standards.

At the same time, inflation heats up. The inflation of the one month annualized PCE jumped over 4.0%, while the 6-month figures are now 3.1%. While inflation erodes purchasing power, the attraction of Gold as a refuge is only growing.

While inflation bounces, Xau has reached 50 peaks of all time in the last 12 months. In fact, Zerohedge said that the physical demand for gold had jumped alongside increasing trade tensions, strengthening its macro coverage role.

In January, American gold imports reached a record of $ 30.4 billion. This represents an increase of 2x compared to the pandemic levels of 2020.

For BTC to question Xau’s domination, a Bitcoin strategic reserve should be established.

Without such a mechanism, expectations for the BTC to recover $ 100,000 remain speculative, risk assets being always faced with liquidity constraints.

Despite the RSI relief, the action of XAU prices continues to make a strong absorption of demand. This makes an improbable decline – in particular with the imminent “reciprocal” price announcement, a key macro -risk event.

In such a climate, the Bitcoin structural test is in advance, because gold remains positioned to extend the discovery of prices in new peaks of all time.