Categories: USA

Global warming carbon dioxide levels rise more than ever in 2024

AFP

Parts of India were hit by a scorching heatwave in June, during the world’s hottest year on record.

Levels in our atmosphere of the gas most responsible for global warming have been rising faster than ever before, scientists say, leaving a key global climate goal up in the air.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are now more than 50% higher than they were before humans began burning large amounts of fossil fuels.

Last year, fossil fuel emissions reached record levels, while the natural world struggled to absorb as much CO2 due to factors such as wildfires and drought, so greater amounts of CO2 has accumulated in the atmosphere.

Rapid increases in CO2 emissions are “incompatible” with the international commitment to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, says the Met Office.

That was the ambitious goal agreed by nearly 200 countries at a historic United Nations meeting in Paris in 2015, hoping to avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change.

Last week it was confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on recordand the first calendar year in which annual average temperatures were 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

This did not violate the Paris target, which refers to a long-term average over several decades, but the continued increase in atmospheric CO2 effectively forced the world to do so.

“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require a slowdown in the increase in CO2 emissions, but in reality the opposite is happening,” explains Richard Betts of the Met Office.

The long-term increase in CO2 emissions is undoubtedly due to human activities, mainly the burning of coal, oil and gas, as well as deforestation.

Records of Earth’s climate in the distant past, from ice cores and marine sediments, show that CO2 levels are currently at their highest level in at least two million years, according to the UN.

But this increase varies from year to year, due to differences in how the natural world absorbs carbon, as well as fluctuations in human emissions.

Last year, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reached new highs, according to preliminary data from the Global Carbon Project team.

There were also the effects of natural phenomenon El Niño – where the surface waters of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, affecting weather conditions.

The natural world has absorbed about half of humanity’s CO2 emissions, for example through increased plant growth and more dissolved gas in the ocean.

But this burst of extra heat from El Niño, amid climate change, meant that Earth’s natural carbon sinks didn’t absorb as much CO2 as usual last year.

Widespread wildfires, including in regions not typically affected by El Niño, have also released more CO2.

“Even without the impact of El Niño last year, the increase in CO2 emissions caused by fossil fuel burning and deforestation would now exceed the 1.5°C scenarios of the IPCC (the climate body of the UN),” says Professor Betts.

These factors mean that between 2023 and 2024, CO2 levels increased by almost 3.6 parts per million (ppm) of air molecules to reach a new high of over 424 ppm.

This is a record annual increase since atmospheric measurements were first taken at the remote Mauna Loa research station in Hawaii in 1958. Perched on the side of a volcano in the Pacific Ocean, The station’s remote location, away from major sources of pollution, makes it ideal for monitoring global CO2 levels.

“These latest results confirm that we are moving faster than ever into uncharted territory as the rise continues to accelerate,” says Professor Ralph Keeling, who leads the measurement program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the United States. United.

AFP

Drought, wildfires and deliberate deforestation have made the Amazon rainforest less able to absorb CO2.

The record increase adds to concerns that the natural world could become less capable of absorbing greenhouse gases in the long term.

The Arctic tundra is transforming into a global source of CO2, thanks to warming and frequent fires, according to the American scientific group NOAA.

THE capacity of the Amazon forest to absorb CO2 is also affected by drought, wildfires and deliberate deforestation.

“It’s an open question, but it’s something we need to watch closely and look at very carefully,” Professor Betts told the BBC.

The Met Office predicts that the increase in CO2 concentration in 2025 will be less extreme than in 2024, but will still be far from reaching the 1.5°C target.

La Niña conditions – where the surface waters of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are colder than normal – have replaced El Niño, which tends to allow the natural world to absorb more CO2.

“Although there may be a temporary respite with slightly cooler temperatures, warming will resume as CO2 continues to build up in the atmosphere,” explains Professor Betts.

remon Buul

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