Washington (AP) – Prepare yourself for several years of even more record heat that pushes the earth to more deadly, ardent and uncomfortable extremes, two of the main meteorological agencies in the world.
There is an 80% chance that the world would have another annual temperature record over the next five years, and it is even more likely that the world will once again exceed the international temperature threshold 10 years ago, according to a five -year forecast published Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the British Meteorological Bureau.
Ricky Leath, a specialist in awareness of the city of Miami, speaks with Bei Zhao, on the right, while working with the Miami-Dade County Homeless Trust to distribute water bottles and other supplies to the homeless population, helping them manage high temperatures on May 15, 2024, in Miami. (AP photo / Lynne Sladky, file)
“Higher global average temperatures may seem abstract, but this translates into real life in a greater chance of extreme time: Stronger HurricanesStronger precipitation, droughts, “said Natalie Mahowald, the climate of the Cornell University climate, which was not part of the calculations but said they made sense.” higher world average temperatures result in more lost lives. »»
At each tenth of degree, the world heats up Climate change caused by humans “We will undergo higher and more extreme frequency events (in particular heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and hurricane / typhoons reinforced by humans,” sent an email to Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He was not part of research.
And for the first time, there is a chance – although light – that before the end of the decade, the annual temperature of the world will pass before the Paris Climate Agreement Objective of limitation of warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees fahrenheit) And struck 2 degrees Celsius more alarming (3.6 degrees fahrenheit) from heating since the mid -1800s, the two agencies said.
There is an 86% chance that one of the next five years will spend 1.5 degrees and 70% like the five years as a whole on average than this world stage, they thought.
The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations managed by 10 world centers of scientists.
Ten years ago, the same teams thought there was a chance from a similar distance – around 1% – that one of the coming years would exceed this critical threshold of 1.5 degrees and Then it happened last year. This year, a Celsius to 2 degrees above the pre-industrial year enters the equation in the same way, which the United Kingdom has met the head of the longer term predictions Adam Scaife and scientific scientist Leon Hermanson called “shocking”.
“It’s not something that someone wants to see, but that’s what science tells us,” said Hermanson. Two degrees of warming are the secondary threshold, that considered to be less likely to break, established by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Technically, even if 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre -industrial times, the threshold of the Paris climate agreement is for a period of 20 years, it was therefore not exceeded. Taking into account in the past 10 years and providing for the next 10 years, the world is probably around 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) since the mid -1800s, the world director of the Climate Services meteorological organization, Chris Hewitt.
“With the next five years planned at more than 1.5 ° C warm than the pre -industrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of serious waves of heat, bring more deaths And serious health impacts unless people are better protected from the effects of heat. We can also expect more serious forest fires While the warmer atmosphere dries the landscape, “said Richard Betts, climate manager on research in the United Kingdom is office and professor at the University of Exeter.
The ice in the Arctic – which will continue to warm up 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world – will melt and the seas will increase faster, said Hewitt.
What tends to occur is that global temperatures increase such as driving on an escalator, with temporary and natural weather cycles of El Nino acting like jumps up or down on this escalator, scientists said. But lately, after each jump of a El Nino, who adds warming to the globe, The planet does not back down much, if at all.
“Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” said Stanford University Climate Rob Jackson.
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