Global actions fall while Trump Stokes Reccue Fears – DW – 04/07/2025

The routing on the global financial markets continued for a third day on Monday, April 7 in reaction to the unprecedented prices of US President Donald Trump on most of the United States business partners.

Investors are becoming more and more nervous about the prospect of a broader trade war, which would probably arouse a global recession.

They say that prices are about to have large -scale effects on global economic growth, due to much higher manufacturing costs, the decline in business confidence, market volatility and supply chain disturbances.

Trump may have exacerbated new reductions in shares in Asia, Europe and the United States at the start of the week by saying that investors are expected to face the market for the moment.

“Sometimes you have to take medication to repair something,” Trump told journalists on the Airforce One on Sunday evening.

Could the global economy fall into recession?

JP Morgan said last week, he thought that the chances of a global recession was now 60% by the end of the year, against 40% before the wide range of Trump prices.

Deutsche Bank warned in a research note on Monday that Trump doubles, the new prices would have “Huge global implications for 2025 and the years and decades in advance. “”

Asia has been struck much more than Europe with samples of more than 40% in certain key countries, which prompted Vietnam, Taiwan and Indonesia to seek new trade agreements with Washington.

China has so far been the only great economy to order reprisals on American imports after the announcement last Wednesday.

Beijing ordered additional 34% samples from American products and has put export borders on certain rare land – vital raw materials necessary to produce new technical and clean energy products. These prices should take effect this Thursday.

After hitting China with an additional 34% rate last week, Trump doubled on Monday, threatening an additional 50% price if Beijing does not withdraw his last increase in the price.

India, which is now faced with a 26% levy on exports to the United States, does not plan to retaliate against Trump’s prices, the Reuters news agency reported on Sunday, quoting an unnamed Indian official.

New Delhi was quick to reduce certain prices on American imports. India was one of the first countries to seek a new trade agreement with Washington, during a visit to the White House by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February.

Imports from the European Union in the United States are 20% samples from Wednesday. EU finance ministers met in Luxembourg on Monday to agree on around 26 billion euros (28.46 billion dollars) of new samples in response to Trump previous prices on 25% on aluminum and steel.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, the executive branch of the block, said on Sunday that Brussels was ready to “defend his interests with proportional countermeasures”. But she also pointed out “EU’s commitment to engage in negotiations with the United States”.

Abn Amro, one of the largest Dutch banks, has halved its economic prospects for the EU member states last week, saying that it expects the quarterly growth of the “flat around zero, with a high chance of a negative quarter”.

Positive news emerged on Sunday when two Trump advisers told American media that more than 50 countries were in contact to find new trade agreements with Washington.

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics said that despite the provocative rhetoric of the American president, Trump would soon realize that he had gone too far.

“The next most likely step is that Trump will quickly announce a few” offers “that reduce prohibitive reciprocal tariff rates on some of the most difficult countries,” Ashworth wrote in a research note, adding that China “could be the exception”.

The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon,, in an annual letter to the shareholders in an annual letter that “faster this question is resolved, better because certain negative effects increase cumulatively over time and would be difficult to reverse”.

What about the American economy?

The US economy has reached an average growth of almost 3% since the end of the COVVI-19 pandemic, but now faces what Morningstar of Research House called a “self-inflicted economic disaster” following Trump’s prices.

S&P Global increased its probability of American recession between 30% and 35%, compared to 25% in March. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, increased the chances of an American recession in the next year to 45%, while Barclays and UBS have also warned that the American economy could contract in the coming months.

Steve Cochrane, chief economist of Asia-Pacific at Moody’s Analytics, warned on Monday that the United States could fall “very quickly” and that it could be “long enough”.

Capital Economics, on the other hand, warned that if Trump was not willing to conclude agreements with American trade partners, the stock market rout would soon be followed by a “collapse of the confidence of households and businesses”.

The Chamber of Economic Research based in the United Kingdom has warned that American inflation could exceed 5% and that the recession would worsen if the US Congress “fails to pass a budgetary stimulus in a timely manner because of the republican intestine struggles. “”

The boss of the American federal reserve, Jerome Powell, warned the prices last week Would probably cause the increase in inflation and American growth. He also mentioned a “high” risk of higher unemployment.

The markets are now betting that Powell will soon announce American rate drops earlier than expected.

What do the prices for China growth mean?

Trump’s prices should largely hinder China’s economy, disturbing export activities and causing substantial market volatility.

Beijing should implement monetary and budgetary measures to compensate for the additional rate and the Everyday peopleThe journal of the spokesman for the Communist Party, tried to reassure Chinese readers that “the sky will not fall … even if the American prices have an impact”.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized Trump’s prices on Monday as “economic intimidation” and “incompatible with international trade rules”, urging the United States to resolve trade tensions in a mutually beneficial manner.

The spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lin Jian, refused to say if the Chinese president Xi Jinping would ask for interviews with Trump to resolve the trade war.

Trump excluded an agreement with China until the American trade deficit with the second world economy is resolved. The Trump administration defended punitive prices as necessary to correct imbalances between the United States and its main business partners.

Goldman Sachs said in a report on Sunday that he had planned to upgrade his growth forecasts for China before Trump’s prices. Goldman said new samples would reduce Chinese GDP growth by at least 0.7 percentage points this year.

Kaiyuan Securities said it expects prices to reduce Chinese exports to the United States by almost a third, reduces global exports by more than 4.5% and cause economic growth of 1.3 percentage points.

Cochrane de Moody’s Analytics has warned that China would certainly feel economic pain “because demand for its goods will be even more difficult (than the United States)”.

Deutsche Bank noted how China has increased from the manufacture of 5% of global products to 32% in thirty years while the goods produced by the United States have dropped from more than a third to 15%.

The United States exported $ 144.6 billion (132 billion euros) in goods to China in 2024, much less than the $ 439.7 billion it imported, according to data from the Chinese Commerce Department.

Published by: Uwe Hessler

Publisher’s note: This story was published for the first time on April 7, 2025 and was updated later during the day with Trump’s new threat to China and the details of the EU prices offered in the United States.