Georgia is a swing state in 2020
A look at the statistics tell us that Biden’s team isn’t bluffing. Georgia is definitely in play in the 2020 presidential election, even if it isn’t as strong a pickup opportunity for Democrats as some other states.
The polls indicate a state that Biden can win, which is what electoral trends suggest as well.
Georgia probably won’t jump 4.5 points left like in 2016, as the shock of President Donald Trump to the electoral system is already baked in somewhat.
Georgia’s move to the left makes a lot of sense when you look at how the state and the nation’s demographic and electoral winds have shifted.
Second, a lot of the white voters in Georgia have a college degree. This is a group moving to the left nationally. Georgia is in the top half in the nation for the percentage that whites with a college degree make up of both eligible white voters and likely 2020 white voters, according to the Census Bureau and a projection by The New York Times’ Nate Cohn using government data. That’s unlike every other deep southern state and every state that flipped from Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.
And while Trump will look to and may be able to counter with non-college whites, there’s simply less room for growth among them. Republican Brian Kemp won at least 75% of that vote in the 2018 gubernatorial election. That makes them far more Republican leaning than non-college whites nationally. Further, non-college whites make up a smaller portion of the likely 2020 Georgia electorate than any other deep southern state or state that switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.
The bottom line: if Biden ends up winning the popular vote by anywhere near the margin he is right now, then he has a real shot of winning Georgia.