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GDP forecasts by Goldman, JPMorgan, Citi, Stanchart


Workers work at a swimwear factory in Jinjiang, southeast China’s Fujian Province, Tuesday, September 28, 2021.

Featured China | Barcroft Media | Getty Images

BEIJING – Ahead of China’s quarterly growth figures due on Monday, most major investment banks have downgraded their economic forecasts for the year and warned that sharp power cuts and a collapse in the real estate market could slow growth.

CNBC has tracked full-year Chinese GDP estimates from 13 major banks, 10 of which have downgraded their forecasts since August. The median forecast is 8.2% growth this year, following the latest cuts. This is down 0.3 percentage point from the previous median forecast.

Among companies tracked by CNBC, Japanese investment bank Nomura has the lowest full-year forecast for China at 7.7%. Southeast Asia’s largest bank, DBS, has the highest rate at 8.8%.

Here are the banks’ forecasts for the whole year:

Banks That Cut China’s GDP Forecast

August

  • ANZ: Reduced to 8.3%, from 8.8%
  • Morgan Stanley: Cut to 7.9%, instead of 8.2%

September

  • Bank of America: Reduced to 8%, from 8.3%
  • Citi: Reduced to 8.2%, from 8.7%
  • German Bank: Reduced to 8.4%, from 8.9%
  • Goldman Sachs: Reduced to 7.8%, from 8.2%
  • HSBC: Reduced to 8.3%, from 8.5%
  • Nomura: Reduced to 7.7%, from 8.2%

October

  • Standard Chartered: Reduced to 8.2%, from 8.8%
  • JP Morgan: Reduced to 8.3% from 8.7%

Banks That Didn’t Change China’s Forecasts

  • Swiss credit: 8.2%.
  • DBS: 8.8%.
  • UBS: 8.2%.

China’s economic landscape

Negative factors for growth have multiplied this year, ranging from slower-than-expected consumer spending to disruptive flooding. Adding to the uncertainty is Beijing’s sweeping regulatory crackdown, including against indebted real estate developers and the allegedly monopolistic behavior of internet tech giants.

Strong export growth remains a positive point. China’s economic expansion is still on track to exceed the IMF’s global growth forecast of 5.9%.

Analysts said China is taking the opportunity this year to make painful but necessary adjustments to the economy. The official GDP target of over 6% this year is well below what investment banks are betting on.

– CNBC’s Gabrielle See contributed to this report.

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