Gaza war: US bomb delays biggest warning ever to Israel

The United States is the only country that has real influence over Israel. And yet, throughout the war in Gaza, Israel has chosen to ignore much of the advice of its closest ally.

The U.S. government says its support for the war against Hamas is “unwavering,” but it has repeatedly expressed concerns about the Israeli military’s failure to protect civilians and the lack of humanitarian access to the population of Gaza.

For seven long months, the United States has gradually intensified its pressure on Israel. He advised him privately. He warned publicly. He stopped vetoing condemnatory resolutions at the United Nations. He sanctioned Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank.

In a particularly forceful phone call a month ago, President Joe Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he would reduce U.S. support if Israel did not allow fleets of humanitarian trucks to cross the border into Gaza.

And yet, much of this advice and cajoling has fallen on deaf ears. So now the United States is starting to swing its biggest stick.

The United States is by far Israel’s largest source of arms and munitions. By law, it provides Israel with $3.8 billion (£3 billion) in military aid each year, intended to give the country an advantage over neighboring countries. The US Congress last month passed a bill providing an additional $14 billion in military support.

Today, the Biden administration delayed an ammunition shipment to Israel for the first time. A senior administration official confirmed to the BBC that the delivery of thousands of 2,000-pound bombs and other bombs had been suspended.

The official said they were also looking at other arms sales, including equipment to convert free-fall bombs into precision-guided munitions.

So why is the United States finally seeking to use perhaps its greatest lever of influence over Israel? A first response is the planned military operation against Hamas in Rafah. The United States and many Western countries fear this could lead to widespread civilian casualties and a humanitarian catastrophe.

U.S. officials say the bombs they have delayed are the type that could be used in Rafah and would have devastating consequences in dense urban areas. The United States does not want Israel to attack Rafah and this is another way of reinforcing that message. A US official told the Washington Post that it was a “warning shot” intended to show Israel the seriousness of US concerns.

A second response is the US government’s desire to maintain pressure on the Israeli government to support a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. Negotiations continue in Cairo and Washington may want to increase the costs Israel could face if it fails to reach a compromise.

A third reason is surely linked to American domestic politics. President Biden is under enormous pressure from Democratic supporters to moderate his support for Israel.

It’s an election year in the United States and opinion polls suggest that some Democrats – particularly younger ones – may be reluctant to vote for Mr Biden in November because of the US role in the war against Gaza. Low participation could seriously harm him in his fight against Donald Trump.

Any decision to suspend military support for Israel carries risks for the United States. Once again, Israel could simply ignore what its ally was saying and doing. This could effectively tempt Washington to bluff and believe that US military support will continue in the long term.

This would be a very public demonstration of America’s diminishing influence in the world. But Israel may also be reluctant to risk a historic break with its biggest ally, on whom it relied entirely for its air defense that protected it from a massive Iranian drone and missile attack just weeks ago.

A big test will come when the US State Department decides whether the Israel Defense Forces uses American weapons to commit human rights abuses. A statement regarding an investigation is expected soon.

Finally, the United States is not Israel’s only ally. And if the US delays its arms sales to Israel, pressure will increase on other countries to do the same, including the UK. Such restrictions would be more symbolic than real. But they would contribute to Israel’s diplomatic isolation.