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Futures betting odds, predictions for top 8 picks

For at least a day, the 2024 NFL Draft was put on hold when the league’s version of the hot stove lit up with a blockbuster trade that saw wide receiver Stefon Diggs land in Houston.

But as this deal moves through the news cycle, we’re bringing the draft back to the forefront with a mock top-five pick.

Go beyond the first pick and there is some intrigue about how the next four selections will play out. We called our old friend Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network’s top draft analyst, to guide us.

Here’s how we see things going three weeks after the Chicago Bears officially put themselves on the clock.

All odds listed are from FanDuel as of April 3.

Top 5 NFL Mock Drafts

#1 Overall Pick Ratings

Player Pos. School Odds
Caleb Williams QB U.S.C. -8000
Jayden Daniels QB LSU +3000
Drake Maye QB North Carolina +4000

Current owner of choice: Chicago Bear

Why Caleb Williams is the favorite: By trading Justin Fields, the Bears clearly signaled that the former Heisman Trophy winner and best quarterback in the draft would be the No. 1 overall pick, and the odds reflect that reality.

Why it could be someone else: Although they have calmed down in recent months, rumors persisted for some time that Williams did not want to play for the Bears. He didn’t help matters when he liked a post on X from a fan saying Chicago shouldn’t draft him. So it’s possible (although highly unlikely) that we’ll see another Eli Manning situation. And even then, Williams should still go #1.

Our pick at #1: Caleb Williams

The Bears need a quarterback and Williams is the best in the draft, maybe even the best in the last five years. Even in an unlikely scenario Chicago trades the pick, no team moves up to the top spot to take a receiver or an Edge Rusher or any other quarterback not named Caleb Williams. Lock him up.

#2 Overall Pick Ratings

Player Pos. School Odds
Jayden Daniels QB LSU -105
Drake Maye QB North Carolina +110
JJ McCarthy QB Michigan +650

Current Owner of Choice: Washington Commanders

Why Jayden Daniels is the favorite: It’s almost certain the Commanders will take a quarterback after trading Sam Howell and trading free agency Jacoby Brissett for Marcus Mariota, who is now No. 1 on the team’s depth chart. With Williams off the board, Daniels becomes the next quarterback…maybe.

Why it could be someone else: What flavor of ice cream do new GM Adam Peters, new head coach Dan Quinn and OC Kliff Kingsbury like? The answer could be Daniels, Drake Maye or even JJ McCarthy, whose meteoric rise in recent months rivals that of Zach Wilson in 2021. Phew.

Jayden Daniels #QB01 of the LSU Tigers speaks to the media during the 2024 NFL Draft at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 1, 2024. Getty Images

Our pick at #2: Drake Maye

At the league’s annual meetings in Orlando last week, Quinn insisted the Commanders were “not there yet” on their No. 2 pick, which is probably why it’s a game of chance. chance with the punters between Daniels and Maye.

“I stuck with Drake on this choice in all my simulations,” Jeremiah said. “Dan Quinn had the most success with Matt Ryan, and who is the Matt Ryan of this draft? Drake Maye. He reminds you of Ryan because of his prototypical size and the way he extends plays. And even though he’s quiet off the field, he has that Ryan energy when he plays.

#3 Overall Pick Ratings

Player Pos. School Odds
Drake Maye QB LSU +115
Jayden Daniels QB North Carolina +130
JJ McCarthy QB Michigan +430
Marvin Harrison Jr. W.R. state of ohio +1600

Current owner of choice: New England Patriots

Why Drake Maye is the favorite: This week he’s the favorite, but oddsmakers have flipped picks 2 and 3 since they were first posted. There’s a good chance that if Daniels moves to No. 2, Maye will follow at No. 3, and vice versa. One thing we know for sure, if the Patriots keep this pick, it will be a quarterback.

Why it could be someone else: Although quarterback is New England’s top need and the position is almost assuredly tied to that spot, that doesn’t mean the Patriots will be the team to pick a QB here. If Maye turns to the commanders at the spot above, that leaves Daniels or McCarthy, who is rising quickly. Like most years, the demand for quarterbacks is greater than the supply. The Patriots could receive a nice reward for this pick and accelerate their rebuild under Jerod Mayo by trading him.

Our pick at #3: Jayden Daniels

With five seasons under his belt as a college starter, Daniels is the most ready among the top quarterbacks to immediately take over an NFL team. He’s not a perfect quarterback, but he’s smart and a leader. And the Patriots, who floundered last season with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe and a completely dysfunctional quarterback room, need immediate help at the position.

“I was in this building (Gillette Stadium) last year calling the Chargers game and they (the Patriots) didn’t score a single point,” Jeremiah said, referring to the historic 6-0 loss of New England in early December. “When it comes to their choice, they will have two very good quarterbacks on their board. It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where they won’t take one.

#4 Overall Pick Ratings

Player Pos. School Odds
Marvin Harrison Jr. W.R. state of ohio -200
JJ McCarthy QB Michigan +330
Drake Maye QB North Carolina +900
Jayden Daniels QB LSU +1100
Malik Nabers W.R. LSU +1700

Current owner of choice: Arizona Cardinals

Why Marvin Harrison Jr. is the favorite: This makes sense, but only if the Cardinals keep the pick, and with one of the top four quarterbacks still on the board (in the case of this mock, JJ McCarthy), many teams will be in contention to move into that spot . .

Why it could be someone else: Harrison is a special talent, but the Cardinals’ needs are enormous, and trading this pick to a desperate, QB-needy team willing to overpay makes more sense than keeping him. The Giants (No. 6) and Vikings (11) appear to be teams that could position themselves for such a move.

Our pick at #4: JJ McCarthy

We’ve seen this happen before with speedy players like Wilson in 2021, Joe Burrow in 2020, and Kyler Murray the year before. A mixed bag to be sure, but what this shows is that teams are willing to roll the dice among the top five picks for a quarterback they believe can be a franchise player. The McCarthy buzz isn’t just Jim Harbaugh hyperbole. It’s real and it’s growing.

“There’s legitimate love for him throughout the league,” Jeremiah said. “He is my fourth quarterback in this draft and my 20th player overall. It’s an acquired taste. His tape doesn’t flash like the other top players because they didn’t run the offense through him (at Michigan).

Some teams will squint really hard and see Tom Brady for all the obvious (and false) reasons, then mortgage the future in order to get to that spot and take McCarthy.

#5 Overall Pick Ratings

Player Pos. School Odds
Malik Nabers W.R. LSU +200
Marvin Harrison Jr. W.R. state of ohio +300
JJ McCarthy QB Michigan +400
Joe Alt OT our Lady +500
Rome Odunze W.R. Washington +1600

Current owner of choice: Los Angeles Chargers

Why Malik Nabers is the favorite: Remember, the Chargers were the opponent in that horrible Patriots game last year and only managed six points. Although his quarterback is in place, new head coach Jim Harbaugh has inherited a mess, and his first task will be to give Justin Herbert more weapons after letting Mike Williams walk and trading Keenan Allen to the Bears. Nabers would be a good start.

Why it could be someone else: This is another flavor preference. Nabers and Harrison are both dynamic receivers, but Harbaugh had a close look at Harrison, who torched Michigan for 12 catches, 238 yards (19.8 average) and two touchdowns in two games.


Malik Nabers is a contender for the top wide receiver position on the board.
Malik Nabers is a contender for the top wide receiver position on the board. Getty Images

Our pick at No. 5: Marvin Harrison Jr.

While Harrison will certainly be the best player available if he’s still there at this spot, will the Chargers be the ones to take him with this pick? Jeremy has doubts.

“If you look at how Jim Harbaugh thinks and how he believes in building a football team, you build the foundation before you build anything else,” Jeremiah said. “All we’ve heard (since hiring Harbaugh) is how they’re going to protect Justin Herbert and run the football.”

The wide receiver has a ton of depth in this draft, and as tempting as it is for the Chargers to take Harrison, this is a likely landing spot for them, allowing another team — like the Jets, who are all on board with Aaron Rodgers – to take the very talented player from Ohio State.

Odds for the rest of the top 8

#6 Overall Pick Ratings

Player Pos. School Odds
Malik Nabers W.R. LSU +160
Rome Odunze W.R. Washington +470
JJ McCarthy QB Michigan +500
Joe Alt OT our Lady +500
Marvin Harrison Jr. W.R. state of ohio +850

#7 Overall Pick Ratings

Player Pos. School Odds
Joe Alt OT our Lady -120
Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State +600
Rome Odunze W.R. Washington +750
Olu Fashanu OT Penn State +1000
Malik Nabers W.R. LSU +1000
JJ McCarthy QB Michigan +1500

#8 Overall Pick Ratings

Player Pos. School Odds
Dallas Turner kg Alabama +150
Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo +800
Laiatu Latu OF Washington +1000
Rome Odunze W.R. Washington +1000
Terrion Arnold CB Alabama +1200
JJ McCarthy QB Michigan +1200
Jared Verse OF State of Florida +1200
Byron Murphy D.T. Texas +1400

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