NEW YORK — Under the bright lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium on Friday, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will play one of the biggest matches of their respective careers when they meet in the U.S. Open semifinals.
Fritz, seeded No. 12, and Tiafoe, seeded No. 20, will both be looking to reach their first major final.
And this match is not just important to them as individuals. Their meeting marks the first semifinal at the tournament between two Americans since 2005, and guarantees an American a Grand Slam final for the first time since 2009 and the first time at the US Open since 2006.
With so much at stake and the hope of making history in front of a crowd of 24,000, Friday’s game should be as electric and memorable as possible. The two players are long-time friends and have been playing against each other – and considered the country’s two brightest young stars – since they were teenagers.
They know each other’s game very well.
“Taylor and I have had a conversation about being the 1-2 Americans for a long time,” Tiafoe said after his quarterfinal match. “I remember we were sitting on a plane a few years ago, and, you know, he’s a pretty private guy, and he said to me, ‘Bro, I think you and I are going to be the 1-2 Americans and lead the way…’
“I think we’ve always pushed each other. Now, I think it’s great that we get to play each other in such a big game, and I’m happy for him. I know he’s happy for me. May the best man win on Friday. It’s going to be epic. Popcorn, do what you gotta do. It’s going to be fun on Friday.”
While the semi-final showdown could go either way, make sure to get your popcorn ready, here’s why both players have a chance of coming away with the win – and a prediction for how it could play out.
0:48
Taylor Fritz reaches first Grand Slam semi-final
American Taylor Fritz beats Alexander Zverev to reach US Open semi-finals.
The case of Fritz
History is certainly on Fritz’s side. The two have met seven times on tour, with Fritz winning all six of their previous meetings, most recently in the quarterfinals in Acapulco last season. And not only has Fritz, 26, won those matches, he’s won four of them in three sets, including their only major clash at the 2022 Australian Open.
Tiafoe’s only win was more than eight years ago, in the first round at Indian Wells in 2016. So it’s been a while, and Fritz clearly has an advantage in this match.
Fritz also showed incredible mental strength during his run in New York, and he arguably had the toughest path to the semi-finals of any player remaining. His opponent in the second round was 2021 Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini, but he prevailed in three sets. In the fourth round, he fought back after losing the first set to three-time Grand Slam finalist Casper Ruud 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.
Playing in the fourth Grand Slam quarter-final of his career, and having never reached the semi-finals before, he fought off a fourth-set tie-break against two-time Grand Slam finalist Alexander Zverev to claim the decisive victory. He managed to keep his nerves in check and consistently play his best tennis, even as the attention and pressure continued to mount.
“It’s cool to be in the semifinals, but I feel like the work is not done,” Fritz said Tuesday before learning who his next opponent would be. “I’m just taking it one game at a time, like I’ve been here the whole tournament, and I’m focusing on the next game that’s coming at me.”
Fritz’s serve has perhaps been his most valuable weapon throughout the fortnight. He has a first-serve winning percentage of 83%, which is the best percentage among men in the tournament, and he has faced only 17 break points in five matches. Not to mention, he has been able to use his big serve in key moments and will undoubtedly try to do the same against Tiafoe.
0:46
Tiafoe reaches US Open semi-finals after Dimitrov withdraws with injury
Frances Tiafoe advances to the US Open semi-finals against fellow American Taylor Fritz after Gregor Dimitrov withdrew with injury.
The case of Tiafoe
Tiafoe, 26, played all but one match against Ashe at the 2024 U.S. Open, and after beating Ben Shelton in a five-set thriller, 4-6, 7-5, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-3, in the third round, he shouted, “This is my fucking house!”
And he’s kind of right. Perhaps no one has wowed the crowd and enjoyed their support in the stadium as much in recent years as Tiafoe — even in matches where he was the clear underdog. In 2022, he beat Rafael Nadal in four sets on court in the round of 16 and cemented his status as a crowd favorite and energetic showman.
While Tiafoe has struggled at times throughout the year, he has found his groove and results during the summer hard-court season. After skipping the Olympics to focus on the surface and his favorite major, Tiafoe went 14-4 and reached the final at the final warm-up tournament in Cincinnati and made a semifinal appearance at the Citi Open in his hometown earlier in August. While he hasn’t faced the same caliber of opponents as Fritz in New York, he has recorded wins over top-20 players like Andrey Rublev, Lorenzo Musetti, Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune over the past month.
Tiafoe is a dynamic player and an excellent shooter – and he believes his past encounters with Fritz will have little bearing on the outcome of Friday’s game, when the stakes are higher than they have ever been.
“It’s different on Ashe, man. It’s different,” Tiafoe said. “Obviously, you’ve got to learn from those (past matches). You know, I mean, there’s two that I thought I should have won…
“It’s going to be a big game for both of us, playing a final. I don’t think those games are as big as this one, so it’s a little tough to go from there. Playing the quarterfinals of the Acapulco 500 and playing the semifinals at Arthur Ashe in the evening – hopefully in the evening – it’s a little different.”
OK, so who’s actually going to win?
It’s safe to assume that nerves will be a factor for both players. This is a colossal opportunity for both, and they won’t be able to forget the moment or what’s at stake. In many ways, it may simply come down to who can control their emotions better, especially early on. Since both are Americans, every point – regardless of who wins – will likely be met with cheers, and while the noise will certainly be loud throughout the game, it may not be as loud as in other games.
There is every reason to believe that Fritz should win this tournament. Their head-to-head results back it up, and his record in this tournament is much stronger. But it’s hard to think of anyone wanting it more than Tiafoe, and he’s been doggedly focused on his primary goal, US Open glory, for most of the year. He’s peaking at exactly the right time.
“It’s almost a joke that Frances wakes up in August,” he told reporters Tuesday.
While Tiafoe’s opponents aren’t as experienced or tough as the ones Fritz has faced, he’s had to fight through it, especially against Shelton in the third round, and has continued to find a way to win. Playing in his second major semifinal, he knows what to expect and the emotions that come with it. It may not be convenient, but Tiafoe feels like this is a match to lose.
Tiafoe in five sets. As he had said earlier in the tournament: “Why not?”
espn
