Four years ago, at this point in the election cycle, Joe Biden was leading Donald Trump by 9 percentage points in a two-way presidential race. Now, just days after the Republican National Convention wrapped up in Milwaukee, a new Fox News poll shows Wisconsinites give Trump the edge over Vice President Kamala Harris by a full percentage point.
Harris gets 49% of the vote to Trump’s 50%. In April, Biden and Trump were at 48% each, and in January, they were also tied (47% each). In June 2020, Biden was at 49% to Trump’s 40%.
Trump’s advantage is mostly due to a 14-point lead among men, compared to Biden’s 8-point lead in April. He also outpaces Harris among white men without a college degree (by 20 points), rural voters (+15) and white voters (+2).
Harris receives slightly more support among Democrats (96%) than Trump does among Republicans (93%), but he makes up for the difference by having a 4-point advantage among independents.
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Harris’s top groups include urban voters (+19 over Trump), college-educated whites (+18), and suburban women (+13). Her numbers are roughly in line with or slightly higher than Biden’s in April among non-college-educated whites (+5), independents (+5), voters under 35 (+4), women (+3), Democrats (+1), whites (+1), and those 65 and older (-1).
The biggest change is among “double haters” (voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Biden). Trump had a one-point lead in April, but they are now 25 points ahead of Harris. The Harris-Trump “double haters” are too few in number to stand out by vote preference.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida, U.S., Tuesday, July 9, 2024. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump is favored by 3 points among new voters (they didn’t vote in the last four general elections) and union households prefer him by 2 points, which is different from what we see in some other northern industrial states. Union voters prefer Harris by 6 points in Michigan and by 15 points in Minnesota.
Biden’s personal approval rating was negative 10 points in April and is now below 12. The opposite is true for Trump, who went from below 10 points to -5 in the new poll. Harris is more popular than both, with 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. J.D. Vance’s approval rating is negative 7 points, while 15% are unable to rate him.
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Fifteen percent of Wisconsin voters say their financial situation is improving, up from 11% six months ago. Yet most still believe they are stable (41%) or behind (43%).
The economy will be by far the most important issue of the fall. It is the number one priority for 37% of Americans, followed by abortion and immigration (15% each). All other issues are in the single digits.
Majorities of those who prioritize the economy and immigration support Trump (by 38 and 81 points, respectively), while those who make abortion their top issue prefer Harris by 78 points.
“This poll shows Harris in a slightly better position in Wisconsin than Biden in terms of personal popularity,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, whose Beacon Research firm conducts surveys for Fox News with Republican Daron Shaw. “But with many voters feeling financially squeezed and union households voting for Trump, she’s struggling to convince voters that it’s better to continue with a Democrat in the White House.”
In a potential five-way race, Harris and Trump are tied at 46% each, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 5%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West each receiving 1%. Kennedy’s support was 9% in April.
Kennedy receives more support from Trump (6%) than from Harris (2%), but the situation balances out because the other candidates also receive support from her (3%).
The broad 75% support for Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race is widespread, including 88% of Democrats and two-thirds of Republicans (65%) and independents (69%).
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks after meeting with Netanyahu on Thursday. (AP/Julia Nikhinson)
That consensus is disappearing on whether Biden should serve out his term: 92% of Democrats and 58% of independents think he should, while 57% of Republicans think he should resign. Overall, two-thirds think he should stay in office.
In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes, less than a percentage point. Trump’s 2016 victory was also by less than a percentage point (22,748 votes).
Poll-rotten
In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads likely Republican challenger Eric Hovde by a margin of 54 to 43 percent, a 5-point advantage over Harris’ support in the presidential race. (The Wisconsin primary is Aug. 13.)
Trump supporters are increasingly vote-splitting: 83% of his supporters favor Hovde, while 96% of Harris supporters favor Baldwin.
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Overall, three-quarters of Wisconsin voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in the presidential election, split 50% for Harris and 49% for Trump. That’s because Harris supporters (76%) are slightly more likely than Trump supporters (73%) to say they are extremely motivated.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at the Republican National Convention (RNC) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., Wednesday, July 17, 2024. The RNC chairman warned against complacency as his party concludes its official nominating jamboree this week with polls predicting former President Donald Trump will prevail over President Joe Biden in the November election. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Fully 84% of Wisconsin Democrats want Harris to replace Biden as their party’s nominee – no other candidate gets more than 2% of the vote.
Conducted July 22-24, 2024, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,046 Wisconsin registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (127) and cell phones (649) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (270). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. The sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, the wording and order of questions can influence the results. Weights are typically applied to age, race, education, and district variables to ensure that demographic data are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weighting targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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