April ends today and the market has been volatile, certainly not one that is typically seasonally strongest of the year.
Dashboard for the month of April:
- Typically strongest of the year for Cable (down 120 pips)
- Strongest month for the S&P 500 (down 2.9%)
- Copper seasons are strong (up 14.7%)
- Oil strong April-June (down 2.1%, but stronger until this week)
- Strongest month for AUD/USD (flat) and AUD/JPY (up 360 pips)
- Second best month for EUR/USD (down 90 pips)
- Second best month for Shanghai Comp (+2%)
The takeaway here is that China-related trading has been going well, while betting on the yen continuing to fall. Dollar trades and risk traders have been hurt by stubbornly high inflation and how that plays out will help determine what happens in May. That said, seasonal variations are almost as positive for the coming month.
Figures since 2000 for May:
- Strongest month for the dollar index
- Weakest month for EUR/USD
- Second worst month for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY
- AUD/CAD is particularly weak, the weakest month by far
- Second strongest month for copper
- Strongest month for oil, although likely skewed by the massive percentage gain (+88%) in May 2020
- In summary, the first week of May is typically the strongest for stocks, while the second week is the weakest.
cnbctv18-forexlive
