Global temperatures are expected to reach record or almost record levels over the next five years, preparing the way for more deadly extreme weather conditions, according to an annual report of two of the main weather agencies in the world.
There is now 70% chance that global warming over the next five years exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Wednesday report of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Kingdom is acting.
More than 1.5 degrees of global warming increases the risk of more serious impacts, in particular the trigger Tilting points in the climate system. The merger of sea ice and glaciers could soon reach a point of return, with dramatic implications for elevation of sea level, scientists warned.
There is an 80% chance that at least a year in the next five, the warmest ever recorded, suggests the report. For the first time, it raises the possibility, although distant, that one of these years will have an average temperature which is at least 2 degrees warmer than the era before humans start to burn large amounts of fossil fuels on the planet.
This is a result with a probability of 1%, the forecasters said, but that the “non -zero” luck is important and reflects the way in which the chances of a year of 1.5 degrees have climbed in the last decade.
“We have just experienced the hottest ten years ever recorded. Unfortunately, this WMO report does not provide any sign of respite in the coming years, and this means that there will be an increasing negative impact on our economies, our daily life, our ecosystems and our planet,” said the deputy secretary of the global meteorological organization, Ko Barrett.
The global warming of 1.5 degrees goes even further in the world towards the violation of the stretching objective of the Paris Climate AgreementThat many nations – in particular the small island states, considered as essential to their survival. The agreement calls for limiting global warming below the level of 2 degrees in the long term, although a single year for this brand does not break the objective of the pact.
Getting in the Arctic should continue to considerably exceed the rest of the world, with warming over 3.5 times the world average during the polar winter, said Wednesday’s report.
In addition to the fusion of ice caps and the rise in sea level, each fraction of a degree of warming is reflected in more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as heat waves and strong precipitation.
Last year was the The hottest recorded And marked the first calendar year to break the limit of 1.5 degrees from the Paris Agreement.
The last five years have presented an aggravation of extremes worldwide, from unprecedented heat to fatal floods within the rapid intensification of the hurricanes Like Helene last year.
The WMO and Met Office report includes the results of more than 200 projections of IT models managed by 15 scientific institutes from around the world. The five -year forecasts of this group have proven to be very precise on a global scale, indicates the report, with less precision for predictions at more regional levels.