The Breeders’ Cup races are coming up in less than a month, which means that most of the major prep races for the series’ marquee event- the ten-furlong Breeders’ Cup Classic- are in the books. Now punters and fans alike are ruminating on the potential field for the race, scouring past performances, and trying to figure out how to extrapolate a winning selection,
Here are some of the lessons we have learned as we watched the top dirt routers in the United States prepare for one of the world’s most prestigious races. And how did the prep races affect the Breeders’ Cup 2022 odds by TwinSpires.com?
- Pace Makes The Race
The adage has been around for as long as horses have been competing, but this year it really seems to be a prominent bit of advice.
The prime example of this, of course, is this year’s, Kentucky Derby. Everyone leading up to the race expected the pace to be fast. Kentucky Derbies tend to feature fast, young, free-running horses and jockeys who dislike playing catch-up. This year, early speed was predicted to be plentiful thanks to Summer Is Tomorrow, Messier, and a handful of other speedy colts.
What no one predicted was exactly how fast the pace would be. Summer Is Tomorrow led the first flight of horses through the fastest opening half-mile in Derby history. All of the horses on the front end were completely cooked by the top of the stretch; the only horse who ran in the first half of the field throughout the race was Epicenter. Summer is Tomorrow, for his troubles, finished dead last.
All of this, plus a wild ride from a previously unknown jockey, resulted in a shocking upset from deep closer Rich Strike, who had been the longest shot on the board at 81-1. In three subsequent races, Rich Strike did not have a hot pace to close into, and though he made valiant efforts that showed class, he has failed to win.
2- Who’s Your Daddy?
Bloodlines can predict much about a horse’s talent, surface preference, and stamina. Some sires are more likely to produce top quality runners than others.
This year’s three-year-old crop has been stamped by the hot young sire Gun Runner, himself a Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Gun Runner made a name for himself last year as the sire of Echo Zulu, who went undefeated as a two-year-old filly and was crowned champion of her crop.
This year, Gun Runner’s sons took center stage. He was well represented in the Kentucky Derby field; he had Grade I Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife and Grade I Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba. Those two flopped in the Derby itself, but later provided a thrilling 1-2 finish in the Grade I Haskell Stakes. Gun Runner also netted himself a Preakness winner in the now-retired Early Voting.
Two immensely talented horses with impressive visual performances are bred on the same lines; that is, they share a sire and a broodmare sire. Grade I Pacific Classic winner Flightline and Grade III Dwyer Stakes hero Charge It are both sons of Tapit, and both are out of daughters of Indian Charlie.
3- There’s No One Way To Schedule Racs
Racehorses are individuals, and have different needs. What might make one racehorse thrive might ruin another.
Take Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Olympiad, for example. He has had seven races in 2022 alone, which is two more races than either Taiba or Flightline. Clearly, he is a horse who enjoys a heavier work schedule. It is important for trainers to know their charges and plan their racing schedules accordingly, but comparing one horse’s campaign to another’s is often comparing apples to oranges.
4- Deep Fields Are Better Than Full Ones
While it is true that field size has declined in recent years, even at the stakes level, that doesn’t mean that the races are any less exciting.
This year’s edition of the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes exemplified that. There were only four horses in the race, but four was all that was needed. Early Voting had previously won the Preakness, and Tawny Port was the winner of the Grade III Ohio Derby.
The race was primarily a matchup between its other two contenders, though: Epicenter, the beaten Derby and Preakness favorite, and Zandon, winner of the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes. In the end, Epicenter repelled a challenge from his rival and coasted to victory.
5- Sometimes, A Horse Is Just That Special
A horse is a horse (of course, of course). Unless of course, that horse is…Flightline.
One blowout performance- even if it takes place in a million dollar Grade I- does not necessarily invite comparison to the all-time greats.
But there’s more to Flightline than the Pacific Classic annihilation. He is undefeated, having won prestigious races at seven, eight, and ten furlongs.
More than that, though, Flightline gives the impression that his wins are downright easy. His stride seems effortless, as though Pegasus himself might be lurking in his soul. He has, as racing hardboots would say, “the look of eagles.”
