As the first criminal prosecution of a former U.S. president begins, only 13 percent of respondents nationwide believe Donald Trump is being treated the same as other defendants, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Most of the country is divided on whether he is treated harsher (34%) or more leniently (34%) than other defendants.
The poll, which began days after the jury selection phase kicked off on April 15, found that only 44 percent of Americans say they are confident that the jury selected for the case will be able to reach a conclusion. fair verdict, while 56% are more skeptical that a fair outcome is at stake. More view Trump’s behavior during the trial as inappropriate (42%) than appropriate (25%), with about a third saying not having heard enough to say.
These assessments of how things are played out in the courtroom come as a growing share of Americans say the charges in the current trial – related to the alleged falsification of business records to hide payments from hush money to an adult film actress, Stormy Daniels, before the 2016 election – is irrelevant to her suitability for president, even if it is true (45% say so now, compared to 39% last year). last summer, before he became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee).
About three-quarters of voters currently support Trump against the president Joe Biden In the 2024 election, they say they will stand with him even if he is convicted of a crime, while 24% of Trump supporters say a conviction could cause them to reconsider their support. Trump is charged in four separate cases, and the investigation question focused on whether he was convicted of a crime without specifying a charge. The group that might reconsider is about 12 percent of all registered voters, more than enough to make a difference in a close vote if he were to be convicted in one of the four trials he could face. faced between now and Election Day.
The political impact of a possible conviction is difficult to predict, but an examination of the characteristics of Trump supporters who say they might reconsider offers some insight. They tend to be younger than other Trump supporters (64% are under 50 versus 37% of those who would not reconsider), are less likely to be white (49% are people of color versus 17% of those who would not reconsider their decision). reconsider), are more likely to say they voted for Biden in 2020 (20% of them say they supported Biden in 2020, compared to 6% of those who would not reconsider) and are more likely to agree that Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency. four years ago (63% versus 22% among those who would not reconsider their decision). They are also more likely to be politically independent (49% vs. 31%) and ideologically moderate (50% vs. 38%).
In short, they tend to be members of groups that generally lean Democratic, but in which Biden has underperformed in early polls against Trump. However, Trump supporters who might reconsider are not necessarily guaranteed to support Biden if Trump were convicted: Asked in a separate question earlier in the poll whether they would consider supporting Biden, 81% of Trump supporters who say that they might reconsider their decision. choice if he is convicted, they say there is no chance they will vote for the current president.
More generally, a majority of Americans continue to say that the accusations in each of the four cases against Trump cast at least some doubt on his fitness for president, if true. A majority of more than 4 in 10 believe that if true, the accusations related to Trump’s role in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol (47%) and efforts to overturn the 2020 election ( 44%) should disqualify him from the seat. presidency entirely.
But views on the relevance of these cases to Trump’s fitness for office appear to be shifting somewhat. Along with the growing share saying that accusations related to hush money are irrelevant to his fitness for president, there has been a slight increase in the share saying that accusations related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election and those related to classified documents found at Trump’s home are irrelevant. his fitness for the presidency if they prove true (37% now say each of these sets of accusations is irrelevant, compared to 33% last summer).
The change in all three cases occurs primarily among independents who lean Republican and those who lean neither party. Partisan impressions of how important each case is to Trump’s fitness for president are fairly fixed, and independents who lean Democratic have changed only slightly. Given the hush money accusations, about three-quarters of Republicans say they are irrelevant now, about the same as last summer, and among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, that number remains relatively stable at around 13%. But among Republican-leaning independents, the share calling these accusations irrelevant to Trump’s fitness rose from 57% to 73%, and the share of true independents saying the same rose from 29% to 45%.
Given the ongoing trial, most Americans believe Trump acted at least unethically, but fewer are convinced his actions were criminal: About a third say Trump’s actions related to to his business records regarding these hush money payments were illegal (33%), and another 33 believe Trump acted unethically. % calling it unethical but not illegal. Only 12% of those surveyed said he did nothing wrong in this matter. About 1 in 5 people, or 21%, say they are unsure.
These opinions are similar to how Americans felt about the case shortly after the charges were announced last spring, when 37% said Trump’s actions regarding the payments to Stormy Daniels were illegal, with 33% saying otherwise. ethics and 10% that he had done nothing wrong at all.
A look at the partisan divisions surrounding the Trump trial
Opinions on the trial and its possible outcome divide along party lines, although independents are particularly criticized over the trial itself.
Most Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Trump is treated more leniently than other defendants by the criminal justice system (61%), while Republicans and Republican-leaning independents largely say he is treated more harshly than others (67%). Independents who don’t lean toward either party lean toward his treatment being more lenient (27%) than harsh (15%).
The lack of confidence in the selected jury to reach a fair verdict is deepest among Republicans and Republican-leaning Americans (37% say they have no confidence at all), but even among Democrats and supporters of the Democratic Party, 40% say they have little or no confidence. confidence in the jury’s ability to render a fair verdict.
A large majority of Democratic-aligned Americans believe Trump’s behavior during the trial so far has been inappropriate (72%), even though Republicans have not come to his defense. Only 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe Trump’s conduct has been appropriate, with 15% saying it has been inappropriate and 39% saying they haven’t heard enough to decide.
Overall, about half of all Americans (49%) say they are following news of the trial very or somewhat closely, with Democratic-aligned Americans most likely to follow this closely (58%), followed by by Republican-aligned adults (46%). %) and independents who do not lean one way or the other are the least attentive (35%).
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS April 18-23 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability panel. Surveys were conducted either online or over the phone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy and Ed Wu contributed to this story.
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