The Fed’s Beige Book for April has been released:
Here are highlights from the overall economic activity report:
- Economic Expansion: Activity has increased slightly overall since late February, with 10 of 12 districts reporting slight to modest growth.
- Consumer spending: There was a minimal overall increase in consumer spending, although the results were mixed across different districts and categories.
- Weak Discretionary Spending: Several reports have highlighted weakness in discretionary spending due to high price sensitivity among consumers.
- Auto Spending: Inventory improvements and dealer incentives significantly boosted auto spending in some districts, while sales remained slow in others.
- Tourism: Tourism activity has increased slightly on average, although the magnitude varies widely between reports.
- Manufacturing: There was a slight decline in manufacturing activity, with only three districts reporting growth.
- Non-financial services and bank loans: Non-financial services saw slight increases on average, while bank loans remained almost stable.
- Construction and Real Estate: Residential construction and home sales showed some improvement on average, while non-residential construction remained stable and commercial real estate leasing declined slightly.
- Economic outlook: Overall, interviewees were cautiously optimistic about the future.
Below are summarized employment highlights from the report:
- Overall employment growth: Employment grew at a slight pace, with nine districts seeing very slow to modest increases, while the other three reported no change.
- Workforce Supply and Quality: Most districts have observed an increase in labor supply and candidate quality, thereby improving the overall employment landscape.
- Employee Retention and Reductions: Several districts noted improvement in employee retention, although some also reported staff reductions at some businesses.
- Persistent shortages: Many districts faced an ongoing shortage of qualified candidates for specific roles such as machinists, trade workers and hospitality workers.
- Wage Growth: Wages increased moderately in eight districts, while the rest saw only slight to modest increases. It was noted that annual wage growth rates have returned to historical averages across multiple districts.
- Future expectations: Labor demand and supply are generally expected to remain relatively stable, with modest job creation continuing and wage growth returning to pre-retirement levels. pandemic.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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