- If the available data suggests that inflation is more persistent than I currently expect, it will be appropriate to maintain the current restrictive policy for longer.
- The outlook is still fairly secure
- Recent figures for employment gains and inflation have been higher than expected.
- As of March, overall PCE was 2.7% over the past 12 months, based on Fed staff estimates of 2.8%.
- Despite considerable progress in reducing inflation, the work is not yet done.
- My basic outlook is that inflation will fall further with the policy rate at the current level.
- My basic outlook is also that the labor market remains strong and demand and supply continue to rebalance.
- Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, I expect first quarter economic growth to slow but remain strong, as indicated by the Fed and Barge retail sales data.
- I am fully committed to bringing inflation down to 2%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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