For months, bird flu has been worrying Desiree’ Moffitt. The more she learns about the H5N1 virus and the more news makes headlines, the more alarmed she becomes. Unlike when COVID-19 spread across the world and shut down businesses and cities — a time, she said, when she felt completely unprepared — Moffitt is now taking measures to prepare for a possible avian flu pandemic in the near future.
“I decided after this (COVID-19) experience that I wasn’t going to put myself back in that same confusing category again,” Moffitt, a 45-year-old mother of two in North Carolina, told Salon. “So I’ve learned everything I can – and it’s not just about bird flu, it’s about any event that could happen at pretty much any time.
This means that when Moffitt is at the grocery store, she picks up extra gallons of water to store in case of an emergency. She also started picking up extra food and putting it next to her water and extra toilet paper. She has a first aid kit and a water filtration kit, and recently purchased a freeze dryer for $3,000.
“I noticed that I was starting to feel really happy wrapping my food up, putting it in the oxygen absorber, and then putting it in my trash can,” Moffitt said. “I filled my first really big tote with oatmeal and different soups.”
“If bird flu comes and infrastructure shuts down for a while, I’m ready.”
At the time of our conversation, she estimated that she had prepared enough dry meals for her family of five for at least a week. She told Salon she plans to continue preparing meals and stocking up on produce. Moffitt added that she and her family are backpackers and the freeze dryer also helps keep the weight off when they go on family backpacking trips.
“Part of me is a little embarrassed because it seems extreme,” Moffitt said. “But the other part of me thinks this is such a practical evolution in my thinking.”
Moffitt isn’t the only one preparing for a bird flu pandemic just in case. On Reddit, there have been several discussions on the r/preppers channel regarding people anticipating a bird flu pandemic. During these conversations, people exchange advice, share what they have done to prepare, and share what they think will be most helpful in the event of a bird flu pandemic.
Currently, most experts do not believe that an H5N1 pandemic poses an immediate threat; it is entirely possible in the near future, especially as cases continue to rise. Unlike the “new” coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, H5N1 is nothing new and has been documented since the 1990s. But in 2024, authorities confirmed that the virus had passed from birds to cows to humans, while slaughtering millions of wild animals and ravaging dairy and poultry farms across the country.
Every time a virus jumps from one species to another, it runs the risk of mutating to become more adept at human-to-human transmission, which is why it is so concerning that the virus was first transmitted to pigs last year. Humans and pigs share many biological traits that can amplify the spread and evolution of viruses – swine flu (H1N1) being the best example.
Want more health and science stories in your inbox? Subscribe to the weekly Salon Lab Notes newsletter.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there have been a record 66 human cases of bird flu since the spring. Among these cases, two sources of exposure remain unknown: the others come from farm animals or wild birds. Only two of these cases were serious, resulting in one death announced Monday.
In the United States, there have been no known cases of human-to-human transmission, a key factor that makes a pandemic a global crisis. Although human infections have occurred in other countries, these cases have not spread beyond close contact. According to the CDC, the total mortality rate for people infected with H5N1 is estimated at more than 50 percent, although the true case fatality rate is difficult to know without more testing.
“While the current public health risk remains low, the potential severity of an H5N1 pandemic prompts us to remain vigilant,” Dr. Rajendram Rajnarayanan of the New York Institute of Technology’s Jonesboro campus told Salon , Ark., adding that the current situation is like “stepping on a land mine.”
“We’ve already walked on it,” Rajnarayanan said. “Our early response is inadequate, both locally and federally. » He said it was necessary to “strengthen surveillance and preparedness” to avoid “triggering a large-scale pandemic”.
The current situation “is akin to stepping on a land mine.”
As mentioned, this week the Louisiana Department of Health reported that a patient with a severe case of avian flu died from his infection, a first in the United States. The deceased was over 65 years old and had underlying health conditions. The patient contracted H5N1 after exposure to a combination of non-commercial backyard flocks and wild birds.
This first death “changes things a bit,” Rajnarayanan said, adding: “The available viral genomic sequence from the Louisiana patient suggests that the virus is trying to adapt inside the host. »
Rajnarayanan was referring to genetic analysis suggesting the virus had mutated inside the patient into a more serious disease in humans.
Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease physician and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told Salon that he does not believe an H5N1 pandemic is “imminent or likely,” although he predicts that there will be bird flu pandemics in the future. Still, he said that for individuals who prepare, it depends on their own “risk tolerance.”
“They can prepare as much as they feel comfortable,” Adalja said. “Such preparations will also be helpful for any hazards, such as a weather emergency.”
The idea of prepping may seem extreme to some, but it’s becoming more and more popular. More people are preparing by stocking up on supplies than in previous years, according to a survey by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). In 2022, only 33% of respondents said they were stocking up; in 2023, 48 percent have done so.
But not all public health experts support the idea of preparing for a pandemic that may never occur.
“I don’t think that’s wise, especially since a number of people currently need access to supplies, like masks and antivirals, given that we are at the height of the coronavirus season. seasonal flu,” Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist and author of the newsletter Your Local Epidemiologist, told Salon. “We do not know if or when an H5N1 episode will occur. »
For Frank, a 55-year-old based in Ohio, it’s not just about preparing for bird flu, but for any event that might cause people to need additional supplies, like a natural disaster or a power outage. He has what he calls a “deep pantry” stocked with supplies including three months’ worth of toilet paper, solar batteries and a generator.
“Power outages aren’t necessarily specific to bird flu, but if bird flu happens and the infrastructure shuts down for a while, I’m prepared for that as well as a winter storm,” he said. Frank told Salon, asking to use only his first name for privacy reasons. “I have additional ways of cooking, additional ways of powering the house, powering the television, and so all of those preparations would be useful, depending on what happens with the bird flu.”
Learn more
on public health
