It’s only a matter of time before summer hits the Chicago area. But how hot is the season expected to be this year?
According to the latest prediction from the Farmer’s Almanac – very.
As part of its recently released “Summer 2024 Weather Forecast,” the publication claims that this summer “could bring the hottest temperatures in recorded history.”
It’s also expected to arrive early, with the summer solstice occurring on Thursday, June 20 at 4:51 p.m. According to the publication, this is the earliest start to summer in 128 years.
The report predicts a hot summer in nearly all of the contiguous U.S. states, with most areas east of the Mississippi River expected to experience a wetter-than-normal season.
The Great Lakes region in particular is expected to experience “sweltering and stormy” conditions this summer, while much of the Southeast is described as “wet and stormy.”
The Great Plains are expecting a “seasonally hot and stormy” summer, while hot and dry conditions are forecast for much of the American West.
As for the one region that appears to be avoiding heat this summer when it comes to the Farmers’ Almanac forecast, the Pacific Northwest is poised for dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
The almanac also forecasts a particularly soggy August and September across the eastern two-thirds of the United States, while reminding gardeners that greater humidity will likely mean more insects this summer.
The Farmer’s Almanac cites various factors that they use in their formulas to determine their weather projections, including sunspot activity, tidal action of the moon, and various other factors.
How accurate are weather forecasts?
The publication claims an 80-85% success rate for its predictions, although many media studies have disputed this figure.
Many meteorologists dispute the accuracy and methodology employed by the publication. One such study, conducted by the University of Illinois and cited by Popular Mechanics, claims that the Old Farmer’s Almanac is only correct 52 percent of the time, which is essentially the odds that a coin toss falls on heads or tails.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a one in three chance that 2024 will be warmer than the record year of 2023, with a 99% chance that 2024 will rank among the five hottest years in recorded history.
This forecast follows an El Niño winter that brought big changes to the region’s generally cold and snowy conditions this year.
Chicago’s summer conditions could change if a La Niña occurs, a change that could already be taking place as the National Weather Service Center has issued a La Niña watch for the end of this year.
According to recent projections from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, there is an 83% chance that El Niño conditions will weaken, becoming neutral between April and June.
But from June to August, the probability of a La Niña developing increased to 62%, compared to 55% in February.
Here’s more information on what La Niña is, how it compares to the Farmers’ Almanac forecast, and what it could mean for the Chicago area:
What is a La Niña event?
According to the NWS, La Niña marks a period when trade winds are stronger than usual and push warm water toward Asia and bring cold, nutritious water to the surface off the west coast of the United States. United.
“These cold Pacific waters are pushing the jet stream northward,” the NWS reported.
This is the opposite effect of El Niño.
What does this mean for the weather?
La Niña events typically bring droughts to the southern United States, but bring heavy rains and flooding to the Pacific Northwest and Canada, according to the NWS.
“During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North. La Niña can also lead to a more severe hurricane season,” reported the NWS.
What about Illinois?
In terms of impacts on Illinois, researchers say summers tend to be hotter and drier than normal during a La Niña, while fall tends to be cooler and wetter .
This differs from the Farmers’ Almanac’s 2024 forecast for the region, which predicts “sweltering and stormy” conditions for the summer.
This also contrasts with the weather during an El Niño event, which led to slightly milder summers in the Chicago area, while temperatures across much of the United States were above average for summers.
“In general, La Niña impacts are not as evident because the strongest impacts have been fewer in recent years,” the University of Illinois reported.
According to the University of Illinois, La Niña impacts in Illinois may include:
- Summers tend to be hotter and drier in Illinois
- The falls tend to be cooler in the north and wetter in the southeast.
- Winters are generally warmer and wetter than average, with more snow and winter storms.
- Springs tend to be cooler in most of the state and drier in the west.
Winters tend to be warmer during La Niña events, but Illinois is more prone to cold snaps and heavy snowfall, researchers say.
A La Niña event could help mitigate much of the rapid warming seen over the past year, attributed in part to the El Niño phenomenon.
But the NWS stressed that “the impacts of La Niña are not as evident because there have been fewer significant ones in recent years.”
More information about the Farmers’ Almanac’s summer forecast can be found here.
NBC Chicago
