Cnn
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For weeks, US air strikes have crossed Houthi targets in Yemen, hitting oil refineries, airports and missile sites, President Trump promising to use “overwhelming force” until the United States achieved his goal of preventing Houthi from targeting expedition in the Red Sea.
The Houthis began the campaign in solidarity with the Palestinians when Israel went to war in Gaza in October 2023. The group led more than 100 attacks and sank two ships. The result: 70% of the market navigation which once passed the Red Sea now takes the long road around southern Africa.
The United States says the campaign works. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said several Houthi leaders had been killed.
But each cycle of strikes causes more challenge.
The Houthis are what a veteran Yemen-Watcher calls the honey badgers of resistance, referring to the belligerent mammal known for its intrepid attitude towards predators. Dampered by a cobra, they get up a few minutes later and attack the snake.
While up to 80 Houthi military officers may have been killed, according to analysts, the senior level of its military and political leaders seems intact. The same goes for at least some of its missile launch sites. Since mid-March, the Houthis have launched a dozen ballistic missiles in Israel and drone and missile dams to the American navy ships. Although none has caused major damage, the threat remains.
CNN reported on Friday that the total cost of the US army operations against Houthi activists supported by Iran in Yemen is approaching $ 1 billion in just under three weeks, according to three people informed of the campaign, but the attacks had so far had a limited impact on the destruction of the group’s capacities.
“We are burning the preparation – ammunition, fuel, deployment time,” said a manager.
Far from being intimidated, the Houthis have threatened to extend their range of water targets, which supports the rival government to the Houthis in the civil war of Yemen. Likewise, Saudi officials say that the kingdom’s air defenses are on alert.
“Dozens of air strikes on Yemen will not dissuade the Yemeni armed forces from fulfilling their religious, moral and humanitarian tasks,” said a spokesman for Houthi earlier this week.
There is no doubt that the American campaign has degraded the capacities of Houthi. Michael Knights, a principal researcher at the Washington Institute, says that he suspects that the Houthis “have lost a lot of drone manufacturing capacity, and that there seems to be a more effective ban on upcoming replenishment expeditions via the sea and via Oman. The Houthis are therefore not comfortable. ”
But history shows that Houthis have extraordinarily high tolerance for pain. And the determination of the Trump administration to eradicate the threat they constitute may ultimately require an offensive on the ground.
“The Houthis are just at war with a first world soldier,” said Knights. “They are ideological, but they are also very difficult tribal fighters in northern Yemen.”
The capacity of Houthis to survive is helped by an elaborate smuggling network which provides missile parts and other equipment. Last year, hidden among the cargoes on an intercepted ship, air frames and fins for artillery rockets, small turbojet engines and hydrogen fuel cells, according to a Research Armament Conflict (CAR) survey.
This equipment could allow Houthi drones to transport greater useful loads and to travel for much longer periods. This “would considerably extend the potential threat posed by the Houthis,” said because.
The Houthis survived several offensives during the long presidency of Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, then a Saudi offensive ten years ago, followed by Israeli, British and American air strikes.
Ahmed Nagi, principal analyst on Yemen in the International Crisis group, said that Israel and the Western powers do not have a deep understanding of the Houthis. “Their opaque leadership and their internal structure have created persistent shortcomings in intelligence.”
Another Yemen expert, Elisabeth Kendall, questions the end of the American campaign. “The Houthis have been bombed tens of thousands of times in the last decade and remain unattractive. So, we think that the bombardment is largely performative: let’s show the world – we will do it because we can.”
Controlling the Houthis, Knights told CNN, is “really, really difficult”.
“They are an extremely aggressive movement. The best way to end them permanently is to overthrow them, to remove them from the capital, to remove them from the coast of the Red Sea. ”
Regional diplomatic sources, as well as analysts, claim that, ultimately, only an offensive on the ground can dislodge the Houthis, which currently control the Yemenite capital, Sanaa, its major port, Hodeidah and a large part of northern Yemen.
Ahmed Nagi, Senior Analyst on Yemen in the International Crisis group, said the United States is wrong to believe that air strikes can force Houthis to retreat. “This approach has failed in the context of the Biden administration and it is unlikely that it will succeed under the Trump administration.”
“Their logic is shaped by years of war; they see resilience as a form of force and are pushed to prove that they are not easily dissuaded.”
“The only times I saw the Houthis go to the table or to the negotiation compromise were when they were threatened with the realistic perspective of defeat on the ground: territorial loss, loss of population control and loss of access to the Red Sea Coast,” said Knights.
This happened briefly in 2017 when the forces supported by the United Arab Emirates threatened Houthi access to the Red Sea, a critic for revenues and military supplies of the Houthis.
The Houthis, if necessary, can really divert us from the strikes. They are a “direct response to Houthi prayers to have a war with the United States,” said Farea Al-Muslimi, Yemeni researcher at Chatham House. The group “wants to drag the United States in a greater regional escalation”.
The Houthis are fighting for the control of Yemen against the internationally recognized government which controls part of the South and is mainly supported by the United Arab Emirates. The unanswered question is whether the forces faithful to this government can fight the Houthis. “They are already trained and equipped,” says Knights. But there are doubts about their unit.
Analysts do not expect the United States to put troops on the ground, beyond a handful of special forces to help direct the air strikes. The United States may provide (Yemeni forces) “with a little logistics, certain key ammunition,” says Knights.
The United Arab Emirates would be “silent” because it has long provided the government based in Aden, he adds.
The Saudi perspective is less clear. Knights thinks Riyadh is worried about the rich Houthis with long -range drones and missiles against his infrastructure. But the United States has accelerated anti-missile defense deliveries to Saudi Arabia in recent months.
The United States will have to say to Riyadh, “We are going to protect you in the same way as we protect Israel in 2024 from the two rounds of Iranian strikes,” said Knights.
Regional diplomatic sources indicate that preparations are underway for a ground operation that would be launched from the south and the east, as well as along the coast. A coordinated offensive could also involve the support of Saudi Arabia and the United States in order to resume the port of Hodeidah.
“The question of whether such an operation is possible is not clear, because the last decade has shown mixed results, successes in certain regions and failures in others,” Nagi told CNN.
From the first day, President Trump and other US officials linked the campaign against the Houthis to Iran. Trump said he would keep Iran responsible for “each blow” pulled by the Houthi rebels and that this would face “disastrous” consequences for any attack by Yemeni activists.
So far, this is not the case, and it is not clear if Tehran can simply order the Houthis to stop shooting. While a lot of the axis of Iran resistance is a lot of Houthi axis.
Trump continues to warn Iran that he will face a massive bombing campaign if he will not conclude to limit his nuclear and ballistic missile programs. For the administration, the Houthi campaign and the “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran are the two sides of the same room.
The Iranians walk carefully, offering moral support to their ally in Yemen. The ancient Iranian revolution guards, Mohsen Rezae, praised “the forces of bare feet of Yemen, who will carry American advanced knees.”
But Iranian leaders do not want to be seen to provide additional military support to the Houthis at the moment because he is trying to determine the mixture of small carrot of Trump and big stick.
The United States seems ready to extend its campaign. B-2 bombers and KC-135 supply planes arrived on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. This can predict strikes on targets hardened in Yemen, but can also be a signal for Iran.
The next few weeks can be a crucial test of resilience of honey badgers.