F-35 to F-47: Trump creates turbulence for Lockheed

The Trump administration throws cold water on the former market of the F-35 furtive fighter from Lockheed Martin. And it is not the only headache of the company.

At least two NATO soldiers weigh alternatives to the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, as the United States reports public declarations and have unintended private discussions that it is less attached to the defense of Europe. Trump senior officials have described Europe as a “pathetic” freeloader.

Trump’s trade wars and public spats with the leaders of countries buying F-35 present risks for Lockheed, which makes the fifth generation F-35 fighter for US military and foreign customers, aviation experts said.

A reduction in F-35 purchases by foreign buyers would increase the cost per unit of jets, including for the United States, because fixed costs can be distributed in fewer planes.

Many foreign military sales, “are now threatened by these new concerns about American reliability,” said Mark Cancien, a colonel of the retired Marine Corps and Senior Defense and Security Advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

To worsen things for Lockheed, Trump selected his rival last week, Boeing, to build the new generation fighter F-47 fighter. Lockheed’s actions briefly fell after the announcement of the contract, and Bank of America lowered the defense giant, citing the upset F-47 contract.

A Lockheed spokesman said that “foreign military sales are government-to-government transactions, so everything that will be discussed by the United States or the governments of respective customers”. And on the F-47, the company said it would continue to work with the Air Force on new capacities.

The White House did not respond to a request for BI comments on recent turbulence.

Growing anxiety

Russia’s warming position of warming towards Russia and its criticisms of NATO countries have sparked a change in the way certain members of the Alliance consider their defense relationship with the United States. NATO countries feed a variety of American manufacturing weapons, but the F-35 is a leading product.

Earlier this month, the Minister of Defense of Portugal said that the country should reconsider the replacement of its F-16 arsenal with the most advanced F-35, citing the American position on security issues as concern.

The Minister of Canada of Defense then said that the country would examine alternatives to the F-35 in the midst of increasing tensions with the United States on the prices commanded by Trump and other commercial threats.

A spokesperson for the Canadian Defense Ministry told BI that Canada does not cancel its planned F-35 hunter purchases, the deliveries that should start next year. They said that the ministry was “at the early stages” of examination of the current F-35 process “in a way that is both effective and in-depth”.

Last week, the president of the Denmark parliamentary defense committed said that he regretted having bought the F-35, citing concerns that the US State Department could suddenly block the spare parts necessary to maintain the plane. He said that the purchase of American weapons is now “a security risk”.

The country’s Ministry of Defense told Bi that “all the limits of the use of Danish Aircraft F-35 are classified information, but Denmark is still open to the purchase of additional F-35 aircraft in the future.”

Denmark, like Canada, is an original participant in the F-35 program. The fifth generation plane was also sold to a dozen countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Since the first F-35 drove from the factory almost two decades ago, more than 1,100 jets were delivered to the Allied and Partner soldiers.

Three other participants in the F-35 program, in particular the United Kingdom, Australia and the Netherlands, expressed their continuous support for this program.

The Dutch Defense Ministry told BI that there was “no reason to assume that good cooperation with the United States in the F-35 program will change or stop”, and a spokesman for the Australian Ministry of Defense said that he was “committed to investing in continuous” in the F-35.

Other allies, such as Germany, have also reiterated their support for the program, or even in persistent uncertainty. A spokesperson for the Polish Deputy Ministry told BI that his F-35 program “was implemented according to the calendar. Currently, there are no decisions on the possible termination of agreements signed with the American side”.

Question alliances

NATO allies have not yet made solid decisions to rid more of F-35 supply, but discomfort has replaced confidence in the past. Analysts and experts say that American allies can rightly be concerned about the potential lever effect that the Trump administration could have on them.

There is no Kill Switch or something like that for jets, but the United States provides additional critical support for its weapons that makes them effective. The maintenance and supply chains led by the Americans, as well as the networks and the support of planning, are essential to the program. Without them, these jets could end up being display parts costing more than $ 80 million.

As with other weapons systems, the State Department must approve the potential sales of the F-35 to foreign buyers. Trump raised his eyebrows last week when he said that some American allies could only buy a less capable version of the next F-47. The United States has sold modified export models of weapons, but the reasoning here was notable.

When he announced that Boeing Co., a long-standing leader in furtive aircraft production, would build the air dominance of the new sixth generation of sixth generation, or NGAD, Fighter, Trump said that the Allies could buy a “tonic” version of the plane “because, one day, it may not be our allies”.

Richard Aboulafia, aviation expert and managing director of the US consulting company Aerodynamic Advisory, said that the reduction in foreign exports could increase American purchasing costs. It’s not great for the F-35 program.

The jet has been faced with criticisms, including the cost reduction department, the Elon Musk government’s effectiveness, for design problems, program costs and persistent challenges of sustainability. There is a risk that the plane can be targeted in future budgetary decisions, although it would be a greater fight.

“There is a scenario in which a lot of export orders disappear, and a bunch of national American orders disappear,” said Aboulafia, adding that it would make a much more expensive plane and, therefore, more vulnerable to cuts “.

Lockheed plans to deliver up to 190 F-35 in the United States and its allies in 2025.

Major-General of the US Army retired Gordon “Skip” Davis, who previously was the deputy secretary general of NATO to the Alliance Defense Investment Division, told BI that if it is possible that an American administration could use the support of the F-35 as a lever effect, “this would not only be at a high strategic cost and to provoke a resistance to the con 65 get loose.

Davis told BI that there were a number of constraints on the administration after the sale of the plane, in particular contractual obligations, to endanger the cooperation of multinational defense and to arouse foreign interest in the F-35.

He said that allied countries vary in their vulnerability. “Countries without a national alternative and not involved in the F-35 component and the production of parts would be the most vulnerable to such a tactic,” said Davis.

There are European manufacturing alternatives at the F-35, such as the Typhon Eurofighter fighter. However, no European jet corresponds to the fifth generation F-35, a low-observation networking platform capable of quarterrier of a range of combat capacities.