2s10s per week
US 2-year bonds are now yielding less than 10-year bonds. Aside from a brief move in early August, this would be the first move toward a positively sloping yield curve since the July 2022 inversion.
The 2 Index fell 10 basis points today to 3.79%, while the 10 Index fell 5.5 basis points, also to 3.79%. The decline was the result of a weak JOLTS job openings report, underscoring that the Fed may have to cut rates sooner.
The market now anticipates 108 basis points of easing at the Fed’s last three meetings this year.
Historically, it is when the yield curve is inverted that we see economic difficulties start to be felt. This is also a negative sign for stocks.
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