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Even if Biden defeats Putin, it will cost the United States and most of the world

It is possible that the United States could overthrow Vladimir Putin, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory for itself and its allies. The only winner will be China

Even for someone like me who is very pro-American, the smoke signals emanating from Washington regarding the war in Ukraine are disturbing. Even in the best-case scenarios, the United States may have hurt itself by not focusing on the right enemy, namely China, not Russia. More worryingly, the Deep State may have pushed the United States into a no-win situation, with the rest of the world suffering collateral damage.

The announcement of $40 billion approved by the US Congress in aid to Ukraine means the United States could become bogged down in what could be a long and bitter war. This adds to earlier leaks that suggest US intelligence and weapons helped sink the Russian flagship Moskva and killed several Russian generals. Does this escalation suggest Vietnam? Afghanistan? And how on earth is Ukraine going to repay this lend-lease debt? Or will he be forgiven?

Meanwhile, things are starting to bite the American consumer. The New York Times tweeted: “Across the United States, mothers say they are rationing food for their babies as they search for more formula. Some drive for hours, only to find empty shelves. Online , private sellers are price gouging, selling cans for double or triple their normal price.Remarkable.The US Congress gave Biden $7 billion more than he asked for, while the babies Americans are hungry.

It’s possible that the Biden White House started this war for two reasons: first, the military-industrial complex’s insatiable appetite for war, more war, and more war; second, the irrational Atlanticist fear of Vladimir Putin; For the moment, we can ignore other, more speculative reasons: ex. Hunter Biden’s business in Ukraine and Chinese infiltration.

The Deep State is doing remarkably well in war. Brahma Chellaney tweeted: “The US war in Afghanistan has been an incredible boon to US defense companies, five of which alone have secured a staggering $2.1 trillion. Of all recent American presidents, Trump is the only one who has not gone to war. Is it cause and effect that he got fired?

The Democrats seem hopelessly Atlanticist, probably because their nerve center is at Harvard, and many of them, for example. Brzezinski, Albright, Nuland, Blinken et al have Eastern European roots and an atavistic fear of the Russian bear. Their generals resume the Cold War, which is no longer relevant. It would be more logical, like Huntington, for NATO (white Christians) to make a tactical alliance with the Russians (idem), against Asia and Islam.

Russia and the European Union are becoming less and less relevant in the world at large. The few hundred years in which Europe and the Atlantic spanned the globe will be seen in retrospect as aberrations, and mean reversion suggests that the Asian heartland and Indo-Pacific littoral states will dominate again.

Russia is a walking wounded nation: its demography is collapsing and, eventually, it will simply no longer have the necessary manpower to control its borders. Siberia will be overrun by the Chinese. Russia’s nuclear weapons were perhaps no more a factor than they are now in the war in Ukraine. It is possible that the United States could topple Putin, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory for itself and its allies. The only winner will be China.

The European Union remains handicapped by its fragmented nature and its inability to act coherently on any subject. Moreover, energy is its Achilles heel. The EU estimates, according to the Financial Times, that it will have to spend 195 billion euros in the next five years to free itself from dependence on Russian oil and gas.

Moreover, they will replace dependence on Russian gas with dependence on American fracking gas. A DW report on the “true cost of fracking American ‘freedom gas'” points out that fracking is banned in most of Europe, so some sleight of hand will be required. The FT also reports that Mario Draghi now speaks of a “cartel” of oil consumers!

Interestingly, US officials offered India similar “weapons of freedom” with their siren song of promised independence from Russian weapons. Caveat emptor!

The European relaxation of their once powerful moral standards regarding global warming is utterly laughable. Greta Thunberg’s ghost won’t be happy. In a sign of what’s to come, FT tweeted: “BlackRock’s decision not to support most shareholder resolutions on climate change is a major step backwards. It allows other investors to loosen their grip.

So much for climate change. New is Roe vs. Wade, as the November election looms.

In another sign of war damage, Saudi Aramco just overtook Apple as the world’s most valuable company. Incidentally, and humiliatingly, the Saudis and the UAE refused to heed Biden’s call for higher oil production. Venezuela, and more recently Brazil, have also said “no” to US demands for more energy supplies. This should show how isolated the United States really is: only Western Europe and Canada/AUS/NZ follow its dictates.

Meanwhile, US inflation is historically high, but the impact of war is far worse for developing countries. It’s similar to 1973, when OPEC suddenly tripled oil prices. It was also difficult for developed economies, but they made money by selling things (for example, the United States sold weapons) to countries like Saudi Arabia. It is developing countries like India that have been hard hit.

Strategically, however, there are other dangers. The first is that China might consider the timing opportune to invade Taiwan. Also, Xi Jinping, damaged by Covid lockdowns, is due to restore his leadership crest for his grand coronation later this year (there are also reports that he is suffering from a brain aneurysm). If an invasion occurs, will the United States be able to help defend Taiwan? Even warmongers The Economist is skeptical.

Can Americans really fight two wars at once? Do they have the capacity? Americans remember how the country rallied to their leadership and beat plowshares into swords when they entered World War II. Their immense industrial capacity has been realigned. Detroit has become the arsenal of democracy, as Biden said. Can this happen today?

As the war in Ukraine progresses, can the United States provide ever more Javelin and Stinger missiles without dangerously depleting its own arsenal? Even admitting that munitions are “smarter” these days, it’s hard to believe that traditional gear like tanks, artillery, etc. can be removed, or that the United States has essentially endless supplies of them.

In 1940, according to an Economist podcast, there was plenty of spare capacity in America’s industrial sector as it emerged from the Great Depression. “Cadillac made tanks, Chrysler made Browning machine guns, Ford…B-24 bombers.” Given the rapid deindustrialization of the United States by the Chinese, it’s hard to believe that this kind of industrial miracle could happen in 2022. The United States doesn’t even manufacture large-scale semiconductors anymore.

Will the United States be forced, for lack of material and will, to ignore a possible Chinese capture of Taiwan? What will it do to South Korea and Japan? Will the American-led “rules-based international order” collapse overnight? Moreover, will the economic system dominated by the US dollar also be damaged?

Thus, the dangers of a deepening and widening of the conflict are enormous, and the consequences for the United States (and innocent bystanders like India) can be dramatic. It would be much better if a “jaw-jaw” were to replace “war-war”, and the United States had to abandon this chimerical quest to overthrow Vladimir Putin.

The writer has been a conservative columnist for over 25 years. His academic interest is innovation. The opinions expressed are personal.

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