Europe plans to send troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. But would Russia accept?

While Russia weakens the Ukrainian forces and the new American president Donald Trump is pressure on both parties so that they have been putting an end to their war that has lasted for almost three years, kyiv and some of his European allies discuss the way to achieve this to guarantee the future of Ukraine. security.

Several ideas have been put forward in the past, but the one that is currently gaining ground is to park thousands of European soldiers in Ukraine, but not under the NATO banner, to serve as a deterrent and rapid reaction in the event of ‘Russian invasion again – a solution apparently dedicated to failure. For Moscow.

kyiv expressed his desire to consider conditions of ceasefire, but the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the security promises of the kyiv allies would be the key to just peace and that without them would not be that a matter of time before Russia went again. Ukrainian officials claim that the agreements made with the Kremlin were worthless, stressing the 2014 and 2015 pacts that Russia signed after annexed Crimea, but then broke with its invasion in 2022.

It remains to be seen if Russia will want to end the war when its forces seem to be at the forefront, even if they undergo heavy losses, or what conditions the Kremlin could seek. But the rest of Europe realizes that a Ukrainian defeat would mean for its safety.

“It is not only a question of the sovereignty of Ukraine. Because if Russia succeeds in this attack, it will affect us all for a very long time, “British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said during a recent visit to kyiv.

What ceasefire projects have been discussed?

With Trump’s return to the White House and his threats to withdraw the Crucial American Support to kyiv unless Europe supports the burden of Ukraine, some European leaders have claimed their determination. French president Emmanuel Macron said that the establishment of security guarantees for Ukraine was a key responsibility for the European nations, while Starmer said that the United Kingdom would play a “full-fledged role” in any effort as peacekeeping.

Ukraine considers NATO as the most powerful means of deterrence against Russia, but Trump and some senior European leaders have put an end to the idea of ​​a presence of peacekeeping led by NATO in Ukraine .

Among the ideas that have apparently not gained ground, there is one according to which the allies would invest massively to arm Ukraine to the end in order to dissuade a future Russian aggression. This would almost surely require major American support that may not be available under Trump.

Another idea, suggested by the Ukrainians, would be for the allies of Ukraine to defend it against Russian air attacks on a large scale, in the same way that the United States has helped defend Israel against an Iranian drone attack last year. Experts believe that one of the possible drawbacks of this approach would be that it would expose Western defense technology sophisticated to Russian military learning.

A third idea, which attracts attention, is that launched by Macron almost a year ago and which is inspired by the Korean armistice. He plans to parking Western troops in Ukraine as a deterrent and rapid reaction force.

Zelensky said that there should be enough allied troops stationed in Ukraine to overcome the advantage in terms of Russia workforce.

In addition, he added, kyiv would need a sufficient flow of weapons, especially long-range capacities capable of hitting the Moscow industrial defense complex, some of which are more than 1,000 kilometers ( 620 miles) deep within Russian territory. Trump opposes this idea.

Even if Trump pushes Zelensky and the Russian president Vladimir Putin to “conclude an agreement”, European leaders are struggling with questions on the level of military and financial support that they could theoretically offer, and on the level of political risk that ‘They would be ready to take at national level if they did. had to send troops to Ukraine and possibly endanger them.

Allied troops in Ukraine?

Discussions may not lead to anything. Russia considers Ukraine as part of its geopolitical backyard, not that of the West. Putin thinks that he won the war and that he can survive kyiv, and he will not accept a proposal that would put Western troops in Ukraine, the Associated Press told senior European and Russian, current and current officials old.

“Putin will never say yes to that”, and it is unlikely that European nations go ahead if Putin clearly indicates that it is a red line, said Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who left his post to protest after the start of the war.

Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Thursday that NATO troops in Ukraine would be “categorically unacceptable” and would cause “uncontrolled climbing”.

However, an adviser to the Ukrainian government said that “technical discussions” with the allies were underway and hypothesized that Moscow could accept such a scenario according to the concessions that Ukraine is ready to make. The official spoke with the AP under the cover of anonymity to speak freely of sensitive subjects.

Zelensky said this week that he wanted foreign support and that Ukraine would need tens of thousands of allied soldiers.

If European countries agreed to send troops to Ukraine, this would send a strong signal to Russia that Europe intends to have its share in the game, said Camille Grand, former NATO official and today at the European Council for Foreign Relations.

But even if the European nations agreed, questions remain regarding the military production capacity of Europe, its workforce and its ability to fill a potential void if we expect a reduction in ‘American help under Trump. The United States provides Kyiv 40 % of its military support.

European defense production is fragmented according to national borders and is underfunded, and questions arise as to the capacity of national governments to defend their own population, not to mention the enormous needs of Ukraine.

Cleaks or wire wire?

Many aspects of the Macron proposal should be refined, in particular the place where the Allied forces would be deployed in Ukraine, which countries would send troops and what capacities they would have “because it would also be a sign of their ability to fight”. “Said Marie Dumoulin, director of the Europe extended to the European Council for Foreign Relations.

During conversations with the AP, Ukrainian officials described these allied troops as serving both a peacekeeping mission, but also for a trigger force, in which they would undertake to counter-attack in the event of Russian assault.

“There are false statements when people describe this as a potential for peacekeeping,” said Dumoulin. A senior Ukrainian official and two Western officials were of the same opinion. Officials expressed themselves on condition of anonymity to speak freely about sensitive discussions.

A traditional peacekeeping mission requires a UN vote, to which Russia can easily oppose its veto. Nor does it include a counterattack guarantee in the event of a Russian strike-a key element of the type of security guarantee sought by kyiv.

Even if the initiative would take place outside the format of NATO, a Western official cited as a possible model the multinational battalions of NATO in the Baltic countries – which, unlike Ukraine, are members of the Alliance . Others also mentioned the example of stabilization forces in Bosnia.

The Ukrainian President said that he had discussed the French proposal concerning foreign contingents with the United Kingdom, France, Poland and the Baltic States, but the reality is that it would come up against fierce resistance from of Putin. Nevertheless, opening negotiations on a proposal for the presence of Western troops in Ukraine could give European countries negotiation room for maneuver with Putin, which would consider such a suggestion “in any case like NATO in Ukraine,” said Dumoulin.