Estimated death toll in Gaza may have missed 25,000 deaths, study finds

Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the Gaza war may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.

The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, carried out by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling with the aim of providing an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations relied on figures from the Hamas-run health ministry, which it said were largely accurate but which Israel criticizes as exaggerated.

But the new analysis suggests that the Hamas Health Ministry figure is significantly underestimated. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israeli aerial bombardments and ground military operations in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was approximately 64,300, instead of the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Health Ministry.

The analysis’s estimate is that 2.9 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population was killed by traumatic injuries, or one in 35 residents. The analysis did not take into account others. War-related casualties, such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne diseases, or the collapse of the health system as the conflict progressed.

The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over 65 years old. It did not establish what proportion of the reported deaths were combatants.

Mike Spagat, an expert in calculating war casualties who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that casualties in Gaza were underestimated.