Early Perspectives on Ravens-Bills
With the Buffalo Bills beating the Denver Broncos, 31-7, the Ravens head north in the divisional round to face Josh Allen and company. The experts gave their first looks at the top-tier matchup, with ESPN’s Seth Walder explaining how each team could win.
“Their running attack is nearly unstoppable,” Walder wrote. “Baltimore showed it wouldn’t hesitate to use Jackson’s legs in the playoffs — he ran 14 times in the Ravens’ win over the Steelers (knees excluded) — and the combination of him and the running back Derrick Henry ball makes life brutal for defenses… However, beating the Bills will require a solid effort on both sides of the ball. Luckily, that’s no longer an issue for the Ravens since they brought back Kyle Hamilton. in deep security This week 11, Baltimore ranks first in EPA allowed per play on defense, including the playoffs.
In “Why the Bills Will Win,” Walder highlighted Allen and their offensive line, but nevertheless expressed confidence in the Ravens.
“The Ravens could still be without wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee), and that’s certainly a point in Buffalo’s favor if that’s the case,” Walder wrote. ” Although Baltimore has shown it is capable of winning on the ground, the Bills defense has been better against the run in the regular season (eighth in EPA per play against designed runs) than against the pass (20th against dropbacks ) They have struggled against pass rushes, which will be a problem Jackson will face. So the Bills will likely need a lot of points to beat Baltimore – with or without Flowers.
CJ Doon of the Baltimore Sun said the Bills’ defense was top 10 in some metrics, but there were flaws the Ravens could exploit, including their run defense.
“Buffalo has been solid on defense for most of the season, ranking seventh in DVOA and 11th in points allowed per game (21.6),” Doon wrote. “But there have been some major hiccups along the way, including a two-week stretch in which he allowed a total of 90 points against the Rams and Los Angeles Lions. One of the biggest problems was stopping the run. Henry took advantage of it in Week 4, and he wasn’t alone. Colts (114), the 49ers’ Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey (131 total) and the Rams’ Kyren Williams (87) also managed to find plenty of running space.
The Bills’ defense also struggled to get off the field on third down, while the Ravens’ offense was ranked No. 2 in third-down conversions (49.51%).
“And whether it was injuries, miscommunication, or a lack of aggressiveness, the Bills struggled to get off the field on third down,” Doon wrote. “Buffalo is allowing opposing offenses to convert 43.8% of their third-down opportunities, tied for the third-worst rate in the league this season. Among teams that finished 10th or lower in that category, only the Bills and Chiefs made the playoffs. “It’s going to take a lot for Buffalo to keep Jackson and Henry from moving the chains. “
