England’s schools face “a death in thousands”, headteachers have said, after a leading economic think tank said rising costs were likely to outstrip funding over the next year. coming year, despite recent injections of additional money.
Without more ambitious government investment in education, the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) said there could be further cuts to England’s already depleted schools, reducing pastoral support and choice of study programs, while class sizes are likely to increase.
The intervention by school leaders follows the publication on Wednesday of a report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which estimates that the 2.8% growth (in cash terms) in school funding ordinary schools in 2025-2026 will be lower than the expected increase of 3.6% in the school budget. costs, caused mainly by promised salary increases for teachers.
“This report reveals the reality many schools and colleges are facing: another round of cuts,” said ASCL Policy Director Julie McCulloch. “This will inevitably lead to further reductions in pastoral support, teaching options and classroom resources. It is also likely that in many cases class sizes will increase.
“Schools and colleges were expected to absorb relentless financial pressures over the past 15 years, and they have done an incredible job minimizing the impact on students. But we cannot continue like this. It’s death by a thousand cuts. The government must recognize the importance of investing more in education.
In its annual report on education spending in England, the IFS says total school spending in England has increased by around £8 billion over the past five years, reversing previous cuts and leading to growth of 11% in real terms of school spending per student.
However, more than half of this was taken up by planned high needs spending, which is expected to increase by £2.3 billion over the next two years, far outstripping the potential savings from a drop planned by 2% of the number of students the government could have. hoped.
Luke Sibieta, a researcher at the IFS and one of the report’s authors, said the government’s next spending review would involve difficult choices about education funding in England. “With the public finance situation very tight, most ministries, including education, will likely have to make savings. Figuring out exactly how and where is much easier said than done.
Historically, middle and high schools have been particularly hard hit, and even with recent funding increases, they remain so. According to university studies, funding per student aged 16 to 18 in 2025 will still be around 11% lower than 2010 levels, and around 23% lower for sixth form schools.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of headteachers’ union NAHT, said some schools are already facing real difficulties in balancing their budgets and having already cut their operations to the bone, headteachers worry about what awaits them.
“It is essential that this problem is recognized and addressed in the Spending Review if schools are to avoid further unpleasant decisions, such as cutting staff and teaching resources, which make it more difficult for them to provide children a top-notch education,” Whiteman said.
The IFS also said students in England are likely to face further increases in tuition fees, as universities struggle to cope with rising staff costs even as revenue from reduced recruitment number of international students continues to decline. Unlike schools and colleges, universities will not be compensated for the increase in employer social security contributions announced in last year’s budget.
To ease pressure on the sector, the government announced in November that tuition fees would rise for the first time in eight years in line with inflation, taking the annual fee to £9,535. This is, according to the IFS, “a brief respite for university finances, and further increases in tuition fees appear likely”.
A Department for Education spokesperson said: “One of the missions of our change plan is to give children the best start in life. This builds on measures set out in the Budget which increased funding for schools to almost £63.9 billion in the 2025-26 financial year, including £1 billion for children and young people with high needs.
“We are determined to repair the foundations of the education system we inherited and we will work with schools and local authorities to ensure there is a fair education funding system that directs public money where it is needed. necessary to help children succeed and flourish. »
theguardian