Emilia Pérez, Conclave and Anora should be preselected

The Bafta nominations will be announced on Wednesday, the final stage of an unpredictable awards season which has held several surprises.

The British Academy shortlists will likely be an important indicator for the Oscars. Last year, the winners of the first six categories lined up perfectly between the two ceremonies.

Applications follow last week’s Golden Globe Awardswhich saw Spanish musical Emilia Pérez take home the most awards, and Demi Moore boosted her chances in the best actress race for body horror The Substance.

The Bafta Film Awards, hosted by David Tennant, will take place on February 16 at the Royal Festival Hall in London.

There is currently no consensus on what will win Best Picture at this year’s Oscars, which will take place in Los Angeles on March 2.

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, Anora, Conclave, Wicked and A Complete Unknown were nominated by different experts for the first prize. All currently have an achievable path to victory.

Bafta shortlists come a week after Screen Actors Guild (SAG) nominations, who saw a good performance for Wicked and a surprise nod to Pamela Anderson for her role as an aging Las Vegas interpreter in The Last Showgirl.

The British Academy longlists, from which nominees will be selected, were announced earlier this month.

They included most of this year’s favorites, but with some notable omissions, like Angelina Jolie and Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres. Paddington in Peru also failed to make the new category of films for children and families.

But just because the longlists have already been released doesn’t mean there won’t be any surprises when the final nominations are announced.

Emilie Péreza Spanish-language musical about a Mexican cartel leader who leaves the world of crime to live a new life as a trans woman, has topped the Bafta awards after securing the highest number of mentions.

He was closely followed by Conclaveabout a group of talkative, scheming cardinals who meet in Rome to elect a new pope, and A complete stranger, which follows Bob Dylan’s rise to fame in the 1960s.

The Brutalistabout a Hungarian architect hired by a wealthy American after World War II, and The substance, which sees a woman take a black market drug to create a younger, more beautiful version of herself, also heavily featured in the longlists.

They were joined by blockbusters WickedElphaba’s origin story from The Wizard of Oz and the gritty sci-fi sequel Dune: part two.

Anorawhich follows the whirlwind romance of a young couple who meet at a strip club, and Gladiator IIabout the grandson of the former emperor of Rome forced into slavery, has also appeared several times on the long lists.

There are six nomination places available in each acting category at the Baftas, one more than the Oscars, meaning there’s extra room for fun surprises.

Among the favorites in the best actress race who have a strong chance at the Baftas are Demi Moore (The Substance) for her role as a fading relevance television aerobics instructor, and Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Pérez) for playing a recently transitioning woman who was once a drug lord.

The other dead certificates are Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) for her role as Elphaba, the Wicked Witch of the West, and Mikey Madison (Anora), for playing a New York stripper who falls in love with the son of a rich Russian.

But there is still a chance of securing a nomination for candidates such as Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard truths), for her performance as an irritable woman struggling with depression, and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) for playing a young alcoholic who returns to Scotland.

Kate Winslet (Lee) could also fit into the category for his role as reporter Lee Miller, as did Amy Adams (Nightbitch) and Nicole Kidman (Little girl). A nomination for Marisa Abela, for the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black, would be a particular surprise.

Meanwhile, the Best Actor category is widely considered to be pretty locked in with contenders such as Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) for his role as the architect of Budapest building a new life in the United States, and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) for his portrayal of the young Bob Dylan and the conflict between his love of folk music and rock’n’roll.

Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), might be recognized for playing an inmate who enrolls in a performing arts program, while Sébastien Stan (The Apprentice) could be nominated for portraying Donald Trump in his early years as a real estate mogul.

British favorites include Daniel Craig (Queer), who plays a homosexual who ventures into the jungle in search of a plant with telepathic qualities, and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), for his role as cardinal overseeing the race to elect a new pope.

But don’t bet on Bafta also getting behind one or two outsiders like Hugh Grant (Heretic), Dev Patel (Ape-man), Kingsley Ben Adir (Bob Marley: One Love) and Jude Loi (Brandon). All of them are British, and if any of them were to get a surprise nomination, it would be at the Baftas where it would happen.

Secondary categories, meanwhile, will likely feature favorites such as Zoe Saldana (Émilie Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Kieran Culkin (A real pain) and Yura Borisov (Anora).

But the race for supporting actors is particularly focused on whether Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) will be nominated. Despite a decades-long career and nine Academy Award nominations for his acting (including two wins), Washington has never been nominated for a Bafta.

A few years ago, Bafta changed the voting system in some of its main categories in a bid to increase diversity.

It came after no ethnic minority actors were nominated in 2020, with a white actress, Margot Robbie, even nominated twice for two different films.

The jury system introduced the following year meant that members’ votes determined only two of the six places in the acting categories, while juries decided the other four.

As a result, the 2021 shortlists were certainly more diverse, but they were also very out of step with the rest of the awards season (even if the final winners largely matched the Oscars).

Bafta continued to use the jury system in subsequent years, although the number of places determined by juries was reduced to three.

But this year things have changed.

Although juries helped establish this year’s longlists, the final nominations for most major categories, such as the acting awards, are now determined entirely by Bafta members.

As a result, nominations are more likely to resemble those at other ceremonies, with fewer outliers making the shortlists than in recent years.

Bafta nominations will be announced by Mia McKenna Bruce and Will Sharpe from Bafta headquarters in central London at 12:00 GMT.

Learn more about this year’s nominated films: