Eli Lilly cuts fourth-quarter revenue forecast, expects sales of about $5.5 billion from weight-loss/diabetes drugs and storage tanks

Tuesday, Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) announced that it expects full-year 2024 global revenue to be approximately $45.0 billion, representing growth of 32% per year. year-over-year versus consensus of $45.50 billion.

Eli Lilly expects fourth-quarter 2024 revenue of approximately $13.5 billion, representing 45% year-over-year growth versus consensus of $13.97 billion. dollars.

The company’s expected revenue for 2024 is $400 million, or about 3%, below the guidance range issued when it reported third-quarter results. Forecasts include about $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound.

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In addition to the adoption of Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly saw strong performance in its oncology, immunology and neuroscience drugs in the fourth quarter. In total, non-incretin revenues increased by 20% year-on-year.

“While the U.S. incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous forecast called for growth to accelerate even faster for the quarter. This, in addition to lower than expected channel inventory at the end of the year, contributed to our fourth quarter results. We continued to make progress in our production expansion, and U.S. supply for all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout the fourth quarter,” said David Ricks, Lilly Chairman and CEO. “The rest of our medications worked as expected.”

“We will also bring additional manufacturing capacity online and expect to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half compared to the first half of 2024,” Ricks added.

The company also shared its revenue guidance for 2025, projecting sales between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion, compared to a consensus of $58.6 billion.

Lilly expects to contribute to revenue growth in 2025 from new Lilly drugs such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh and Kisunla; approvals of new indications for existing Lilly drugs; launches of Mounjaro in other global markets, as well as potential launches of new drugs such as immunoestrant for metastatic breast cancer. Incretin market and channel dynamics have been considered in the 2025 revenue forecast range.

Price action: LLY stock is down 8.03% at $775.10 at last check Tuesday.

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