The United States is poised to burn significantly more natural gas in the coming years to meet growing electricity demand, potentially locking in decades of emissions that are driving up global temperatures.
Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States barely moved in 2024, despite the huge investments that the country has made in clean energy under the Inflation Reduction Acta historic climate law signed by President Joe Biden. Market analysts say America goal of cutting Heat-trapping pollution, cut in half from 2005 levels by the end of the decade, is now virtually out of reach.
For power companies responsible for providing lighting, natural gas is emerging as a reliable way to increase energy supplies to new data centers and factories, as well as consumer goods like electric vehicles and heat pumps.
Utilities need to “meet demand no matter what,” says Ben King, managing partner of the Rhodium Group, an energy research firm. “And the way they feel most comfortable and confident is to use the same items they’ve always put on the grid.”
Failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will have its own consequences. THE The UN says The world must eliminate or offset all greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century to avoid more catastrophic impacts of climate change. Natural gas creates fewer emissions than coal when burned, but its production and transportation can release enormous amounts of gas. methanea powerful climate pollutant.
“The projections of business as usual are pretty dire in terms of climate change,” says Daniel Jacob, a professor of atmospheric chemistry and environmental engineering at Harvard University.
“I don’t consider it apocalyptic,” Jacob says. “But it’s messing up our society.”
Over the next five years, electricity demand in the United States expected to grow by nearly 16%according to Grid Strategies, a consulting firm. This is huge for an industry that has seen energy consumption increase by less than 1% per year over the last 20 years.
There are already signs that a construction boom is coming in the natural gas industry.
GE Vernova, a gas turbine maker, is expected to finish last year with 20 gigawatts of orders worldwide, nearly double what it has booked in 2023, said Scott Strazik, the company’s chief executive. . said during a meeting with Wall Street analysts in December.
“I can’t think of a time when the gas business has been more fun than it is today,” Strazik said. The industry is also celebrating the election of Donald Trump, who promised to boost the nation’s fossil fuel industry during his second term.
Companies that produce and manufacture electricity from natural gas already hold a dominant position in U.S. electricity markets. The fuel was used to generate approximately 43% of the country’s electricity in 2023.
“That number is going to increase in the short term,” says Cy McGeady, a fellow in the energy security and climate change program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “For how long and to what extent is more difficult to predict.”
Demand is growing largely because companies are building data centers to power artificial intelligence, which uses far more electricity than traditional internet. Grid Strategies says demand is also increasing due to growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector and as businesses and homeowners replace fossil fuel-powered products with ones powered by electricity, such as electric vehicles.
Highlighting the challenge posed by increasing demand, regulators warn Large parts of the country may not be able to generate enough electricity in the coming years as old coal-fired plants are retired, increasing the risk of power outages.
Fossil fuels are not the only answer to growing demand. Businesses can reduce energy consumption or use batteries when grids lack power. And there is a big push to add renewable energy plants to provide more electricity. But industry analysts say regulations need to be streamlined so companies can build clean energy projects and connect them to power grids more quickly.
Industry analysts say it may still prove difficult to provide electricity 24 hours a day without creating climate pollution. New nuclear power plants, for example, could play a key role, but “they’re going to take a while to build,” says Tyler Norris, a researcher at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment.
Thus, some utilities are delay plans to decommission aging coal plantsand many are looking to burn more natural gas.
“It’s a huge challenge to meet the growth in demand, period,” says Chris Seiple, vice president of energy and renewables at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm. “It’s an even bigger challenge to meet the growth in demand in a decarbonized way.”
What happened last year in the U.S. power industry shows how difficult it is to increase electricity production without increasing emissions. Climate pollution from the electricity sector has increased gradually as a combination of natural gas and renewable energy has been used to meet a 3% increase in electricity demand, a study has found. preliminary assessment of the Rhodium Group.
Large electricity consumers say they want clean energy, Seiple says. But “they’ll accept gas-fired generation if that’s the only thing they can get,” he says. “They’ll even accept coal-fired generation if that’s the only thing they can get.”
Even if the United States consumes more gas to generate electricity, the amount of climate pollution from the country’s electricity industry probably won’t increase much, Rhodium Group’s King estimates, as companies continue to remove gas. coal. But any delay in reducing emissions poses risks, as scientists say the world must act faster than it currently does to curb the worsening effects of global warming.
“Energy sector emissions remaining flat or increasing slightly is not a step in the right direction,” King says.
Last year it was hottest ever recorded after global broadcasts reached a new peak in 2023. In a hotter world, the risks of more extreme heat waves, storms, floods and wildfires increase.
At the end of last year, Hurricane Helene ravaged the southeastern United States before decimating the mountain towns of North Carolina. This storm with Hurricane Miltonwhich hit Florida about a week later, were should cost insurance companies up to $55 billion. Today, wildfires ravaging neighborhoods around Los Angeles are expected to cause damage and economic losses of up to $275 billionaccording to a preliminary estimate.
It’s also a worrying sign for other countries’ climate efforts, says Duke University’s Norris.
“If even the United States or the richest countries in the world fail to make significant progress in reducing our emissions, then we will be in a very difficult situation from a global perspective,” Norris said .
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