Elections in South Africa: first results place the ruling ANC short of a majority

JOHANNESBURG (AP) – Partial results National elections in South Africa put the long-ruling African National Congress party well below 50% of the vote as counting continued Thursday, and it could be on the verge of losing its majority for the first time since taking power under Nelson Mandela at the end of apartheid in 2007. 1994.

It would be a momentous change for South Africa, where the ANC has dominated for 30 years of its young democracy and is the only ruling party many have known.

The ANC received the most votes and was well ahead in early results, as expected. But if he fails to secure a majority, he may have to form a coalition to stay in government – ​​something that has never happened before in post-apartheid South Africa. Without a majority, the ANC would also need help from other parties to re-elect President Cyril Ramaphosa for a second term.

“I think we are seeing a massive shift in South African politics,” Susan Booysen, a political analyst and professor emeritus at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, told national broadcaster SABC TV.

It was still only a first glimpse after Wednesday’s elections. Final results are expected to take days, with the independent electoral commission saying they would be returned by Sunday, although they could arrive sooner.

South Africans were eagerly waiting to see if their country, the most advanced economy, was about to enter a new era. Some analysts said the incomplete results were already unprecedented in scale the long-dominant ANC was below the 50% mark at this stage of the counting. Partial results place the ANC at 43% of the vote.

The ANC’s worst performance in a national election was when it won with 57.5% in the last one in 2019. A projection from a government agency and the SABC, based on early voting results, estimates that the ANC would end up with around 42% this time, a drop of more than 15%, which would be a surprising result in the context of South Africa.

The ANC would likely have to co-govern and find a coalition partner if predictions are confirmed, which would take South Africa into the unknown. The ANC has said until Wednesday’s election that it is confident it can retain its majority and has given no indication of how it might form a coalition government.

Although a defining moment, South Africa “had to chart a new course, but with no clear indication of where that might take”, said Terry Tselane, executive chairman of the Institute of electoral management services in Africa, an electoral body. thinking group.

This election was seen as a direct referendum on the uninterrupted rule of the ANCwho liberated South Africa from the oppressive and racist apartheid regime in the famous multiracial vote of 1994, but has seen his popularity steadily decline over the past two decades.

ANC deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane told SABC: “We remain optimistic.”

Nearly 28 million people out of South Africa’s population of 62 million were registered to vote.

South Africa may be the continent’s most advanced country, but it has struggled to address deep inequality that has kept millions in poverty decades after the end of apartheid segregation. This inequality and widespread poverty disproportionately affects the black majority who make up more than 80% of the country’s population. South Africa has one of the worst unemployment rates in the world at 32%.

Voters repeatedly cited unemployment as well as other issues such as the ANC’s corruption scandals, problems with basic government services and high-violence crime as their main grievances.

“The ANC has failed us for 30 years,” said Thandi Hlope, who lives in a rural town in the eastern province of KwaZulu-Natal. “They have failed to bring us real freedom. »

The ANC faced stronger opposition than ever in this vote. More than 50 political parties have registered to participate, the largest number in a national election, and many of them are new. A large part of the opposition votes However, it was expected to be split between a range of these other parties.

Initial results put the Democratic Alliance, the main opposition, at around 24% of the vote and the Economic Freedom Fighters party at around 9%. The partial results also reflect the immediate impact of former President Jacob Zuma’s new MK party, which has turned against the ANC he once led. The MK Party vied with the EFF for third place in its first election and was a significant factor in the ANC’s withdrawal of support.

South Africans vote for parties and not directly for their president in national elections. These parties then gain seats in Parliament based on their vote share, and lawmakers elect the president. The ANC has always had a clear parliamentary majority since 1994, so the president has always been from the ANC.

The process of electing a president would not be as simple if the ANC lost its majority.

The electoral commission predicted a high turnout and this was reflected in Wednesday’s scenes across the country, as South Africans queued through the night to make their choice. The long lines of voters winding through the cities and countryside revived memories of the final elections of 1994 which changed a country.

While polls officially ended at 9 p.m., voting continued for hours in many places, with officials noting a late surge of ballots in major cities like Johannesburg and Cape Town. The electoral commission said the last votes took place around 3 a.m. The rules state that anyone in line at a polling station before closing time must be allowed to vote.

The determination of South Africans to stand out in the winter cold until the middle of the night suggests that millions of people understood how consequential this election could be.

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Imray reported from Cape Town. AP writer Farai Mutsaka contributed from Mahlbnathini, South Africa.

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