Al Ahram The newspaper recently reported that Egypt has provided tens of thousands of psychological support sessions to injured Palestinians since the start of the Gaza war. This seemingly minor news is part of a broader media and public relations campaign aimed at demonstrating Egypt’s commitment to the Palestinian cause.
Since October 7, Egypt has been at the epicenter of the conflict. Sharing a border with Gaza since Israel’s disengagement in 2005, Egypt fears a mass exodus of Palestinians fleeing – or being expelled – across this border to Sinai. Such a scenario would pose a significant security and humanitarian threat to a country already struggling with a large and poor population and which has only recently overcome the threat of Islamic State cells among the Bedouins of the Sinai Peninsula. In addition, Egypt already hosts around half a million refugees, mainly from Sudan and Syria.
Egypt is also struggling with serious economic problems. Suez Canal revenues have fallen due to Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, tourism has fallen, natural gas revenues are declining, and poverty rates are increasing due to rising prices. Ending the war is therefore a top priority for Egypt. However, the conflict also offers President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi an opportunity to restore Egypt’s leadership in the Arab world.
Since the start of the war, Egypt has spearheaded mediation efforts between Israel and Fatah, alongside Qatar. While Egypt has played a mediating role in all previous wars and crises between Israel and Hamas since 2007, its current involvement appears more extensive.
Egypt uses several assets in its mediation efforts. First, its direct relations with Israel and Hamas allow it to transmit messages quickly and reliably. Second, Egypt’s general intelligence services have had a working relationship with the Hamas leadership for many years. Finally, Egypt’s relations with the Biden administration constitute an additional asset. While Egypt lacks financial and economic leverage, Qatar supplements it with its own resources and strategic relationships.
However, Egypt is seen as a more reliable or “objective” intermediary in the eyes of Israel and the United States. Egypt’s interests overlap with Israel’s in terms of weakening Hamas, although Egypt would prefer to see an improved Palestinian Authority (PA) installed in Gaza, a position Israel currently opposes.
Egypt’s involvement goes beyond mediation. It is a crucial player in the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza via the Rafah crossing. Egyptian media provide detailed reports on the number of aid trucks passing through, highlighting Egypt’s role in alleviating the humanitarian crisis. Additionally, injured Palestinians from Gaza are being treated in Cairo hospitals, although in limited numbers.
Egypt seeks to end war and restore calm
Egyptian policy aims to end the war to restore calm to Gaza, prevent an influx of refugees and stabilize its economy. Additionally, Egypt hopes to reap two important foreign policy dividends.
FIRST, IT seeks to strengthen its position with the Biden administration as an important and trusted ally. This is particularly important given the likelihood that the United States will sign a defense deal with Saudi Arabia, which could make Saudi Arabia the most important US ally in the region. Improving its position vis-à-vis the United States could also reduce American criticism and interference regarding the Sissi regime’s human rights record.
The second potential dividend concerns Egypt’s position in the Arab world, which has declined in recent decades. The rapid pace of population growth, the relative lack of fossil resources (apart from natural gas), and the aftermath of the Arab Spring have led Egypt to focus more on its internal affairs.
In contrast, the oil- and gas-rich Gulf states – particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar – have emerged as the leading Arab countries.
Leadership in the Arab world is also linked to mediation in regional conflicts. This role takes on particular prestige in the context of the Palestinian question, which is crucial in Arab politics and for strengthening the legitimacy of national leaders. While the UAE focuses on providing humanitarian aid and Saudi Arabia advances its defense deal with the United States (and possibly normalization with Israel), Egypt is deeply engaged in mediation.
Egypt has presented Israel and Hamas with multiple proposals to end the war, the most important of which were put forward in December 2023 and April 2024.
Confident in the latest agreement, Egypt found that Hamas was modifying the proposal to better suit its own interests. In response, Egypt attempted to force Israel’s hand by ceasing or delaying the delivery of humanitarian aid through the Rafah crossing (controlled by Israel on the Palestinian side), threatening to downgrade diplomatic relations, and expressing support for South Africa’s case before the International Court of Justice. Justice in The Hague alleging genocide in Gaza.
Paradoxically, Egypt will benefit from almost every outcome. If the Rafah operation is prevented and a deal is reached, it will be largely attributed to Sissi, raising Egypt’s prestige. If Israel continues Operation Rafah and succeeds in eliminating Hamas, this is also in Egypt’s interests, although it will not say so publicly.
The real problem arises if neither outcome materializes.
So far, Israeli-Egyptian relations have managed to overcome many obstacles and challenges, but Operation Rafah could be a turning point. From Egypt’s perspective, this risks causing Palestinians to flee to its territory, thereby exposing it to harsh criticism from Egyptian and Arab public opinion and further destabilizing the region.
The failure of Egypt’s mediation proposal also harms its efforts to achieve an Arab solution to the conflict. The Israeli operation in Rafah risks being one “dune” too many in Israeli-Egyptian relations, straining the delicate balance that has maintained their cooperation until now.
The writer teaches at the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and is a board member of Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.
News Source : www.jpost.com
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