Although they say the only two certainties in life are death and taxes, those who play fantasy baseball know that early-season overreactions are just as inevitable. It doesn’t matter that the season is six months and 162 games long, hot and cold starts in March and April are over-analyzed to the point where new fantasy owners start making mistakes while savvy veterans swim in crony-filled waters , waiting for. hit. The perfect examples of potential overreactions and player overvaluation can be found as early as opening day and if you’re not careful, you could become one of the early season casualties we witness every season.
There was a lot to like about how Garrett Crochet opened the 2024 MLB season for the White Sox. When initially drafted, the southpaw was compared to a vintage Chris Sale and that comment resurfaced after he held the Tigers to one run on five hits (no walks) with eight strikeouts in six innings. He located his throws well and was absolutely dominant with his slider. His next two starts line up against Kansas City and Cleveland, so you can expect him to be a popular addition from the waiver wire this week.
Unfortunately, there should be little confidence for the entire season. Yes, he has a lot of raw talent, but you can’t ignore the fact that he missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and has only pitched 12 ²/₃ innings in 2023. A normal year-over-year innings increase for pitchers is between 30 and 50 innings, so there should be major concerns about the number of starts Crochet makes. Even if it dominates in April, it should be one of the best-selling titles in the fantasy world. If you’re considering adding him to waivers, know that the time to trade him is already running out.
Reds designated hitter Nick Martini is another player to watch out for this weekend. Hitting two home runs on Opening Day is a sure-fire way to get noticed, but even though half of his games are at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, there’s durability to worry about. This is not a young newbie bursting onto the scene. Martini is a 33-year-old minor leaguer who is now on his fourth team. He has shown limited power and almost no speed throughout his career and his best asset is that he knows how to draw a step. That doesn’t help anyone this season, even if you’re only looking for help from the OBP. Maybe the rough and early season adjustments allow him to shine for a short time, but wasting free agent deal money on him could be a huge mistake.
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Navigating hot and cold starts can be tricky during a fantasy baseball season and the pomp and circumstance of early games can blindside an owner. You don’t need to be negative at the start of every season, but having a skeptical eye will definitely help you with your early season decisions. Always dig deeper than the initial statistics. Be calm and patient. The snake oil salesmen will come in droves, so keep a cool head and you’ll do just fine.
Howard Bender is the Content Manager at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and find him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Channel weekdays from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.
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