Categories: Business

Dollar falls by most recorded while traders are preparing for more pain

A dollar Bloomberg gauge has dropped the most recorded because the fears increased that President Donald Trump’s commercial prices would beat the US economy.

The Filomberg Dollar Spot index dropped up to 2.1% on Thursday, the drop in the strongest intradays in the measure since its launch in 2005. Investors have been downgraded in the dollar in the coming month for the first time since September, according to options from the options.

The pricing scheme “harms the credibility of the United States and will have a more negative impact on American consumers and companies, if it will remain in progress for a significant period,” said Leah Traub, portfolio and leader of the Lord Abbett & Co.

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The greenback fell against all the peers of the 10 -year -old group on Thursday, with Havens Le Yen Japanese and the management of the Swiss franc. The euro joined up to 2.7%, the most net intra -day gain in the single currency in almost a decade, while almost all the emerging market currencies followed by Bloomberg Advanced. Bond markets around the world have rallied in the middle of a slide in global actions.

The weakness of the dollar comes when traders find it difficult to assess how measures – which were harder and wider than many people had had an impact on the growth and inflation of the United States in the coming months.

For the moment, many see a slowdown in the American economy as a more important threat than an inflation resurgence. This feeds bets according to which the Federal Reserve will reduce more than expected rates to increase growth, adding to damping pressure on the greenback.

“The Fed path to cause disinflation without a significant slowdown in the economy or a high unemployment rate,” said Elias Haddad, strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in London. “This is bad news for the dollar.”

The Hedge Funds increased their dollar bets on the dollar, mainly against the Yen and the Euro, while preparing for greater volatility at the end of the year, according to traders in familiar currencies with transactions that have asked not to be identified because they are not allowed to speak publicly.

Traders increased betting on interest rate reductions, with exchanges indexed during the night signaling at a given time a full drop of 25 points in the Fed’s June meeting, compared to 76% of opportunities on Wednesday. The 10 -year -old treasure yield fell below 4% for the first time since October before reducing the decline.

The prolonged decline in the dollar in the middle of a world sale in risk assets has sparked a vigorous debate on the question of whether it has retained its status of paradise during turbulent times, given the local nature of economic fears that turn macro-markets.

“We are being changed dramatic regime on the markets,” wrote George Saravelos, the world leader in FX strategy of Deutsche Bank Ag, in a note to customers. “Given the dramatic nature of the movements, we fear more and more that the dollar risks a wider crisis of confidence.”

Trump announced on Wednesday that it would apply a price of at least 10% on all exporters in the United States, with even higher tasks in sixty countries to counter significant commercial imbalances with the United States. In response, Canada said it would fight prices with countermeasures while China and the EU also walked up.

What our strategists say …

“The dollar is down because it is negotiated as a risk currency. … In Europe, the weakness of the dollar can also be due to the anti-coercion instrument of the block, which should allow rapid reprisals.

– SEBASTIAN BOYD, Stratège des Marchés Live, Santiago

Despite the emphasis on the impact of growth prices, the threat of faster inflation has not disappeared.

“It is not as simple as” American growth will be lower, the Fed will cut more, will sell the dollar, “said Erik Nelson, Macro-Stratege at Wells Fargo. The central bank’s response in the coming days will be critical for the dollar path, he added.

“If the Fed is more leaning over the growth of its mandate, the euro can continue to increase against the dollar, but if inflation problems come to the foreground, the sale of the dollar will stop on its traces,” said Nelson.

For the moment, he recommends a long position on the euro against the dollar and the book.

The strategists of Citigroup Inc., on the other hand, recommend a bet on the euro reaching $ 1.15 in the coming months on which the prices will bring a greater blow to the gains in American actions compared to those of Europe.

A consultant who beat Wall Street is held by call to Euro Haussier

“Assistance from Aline Oyamada, Catherine Bosley, Kriti Gupta, Masaki Kondo and Ies Iosebashvili.

(Updates prices and graphics, adds comments on global markets.)

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remon Buul

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