Yesterday, I wrote that Powell’s speech planned for today was an equal event that the payroll not enlarged and it is even more true now. The Fed prices have continued to make a dominant change and the market is now a price in 125 basic points in rate drops in the next 12 months.
The runners are contrary to the recent comments of the Fed who suggest that they do not want to reduce rates as long as they have a clearer vision of low rates and that they are not convinced that prices will be a punctual and short price of prices.
Now the market is still believing in the Fed power and it is very well founded given the long -term support of risk assets.
I guess Powell will repeat that the Fed does not need to be “pressed” to make a movement. This is what Jefferson said yesterday and it may not be enough, but it is the Fed line from the last FOMC and taking into account all the turbulence at the moment, it is the safest line of conduct.
The problem I have at the moment is that the market is seeing 40% of a reduction during the May 7 meeting and costs 35 BPS in reduction for the June meeting. If Powell does not recognize him, then he may seem atrocist and we could get more kicks and cries on the markets.
For him, however, it is a difficult place, especially in the light of the non -enlarged payroll today. He characterized the position of the Fed as modestly restrictive and do they want to be painful at a time when the prices could bring the inflation of the PCE to 5%.
