Detroit Lions Playoff Scouting Report: Returning Commanders Won’t Leave

Welcome to the beginning of the end of the 2024 season. The 2024 NFL playoffs started last week and the Detroit Lions were at home, relaxing and watching the games like you and me. They earned first place after going 15-2 and winning the NFC North, giving them a week off to rest and recover. Detroit hasn’t had a bye week since Week 5, so this was much needed and well deserved.

To begin their Super Bowl journey, the Lions will host the Washington Commanders after upsetting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round. Of the Lions’ four possible opponents in the divisional round, this is the only team they have not faced this season. With a new adversary brings new challenges and obstacles. Washington has presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year quarterback Jayden Daniels leading the charge, and they’ll look to keep the upsets going Saturday night.

Let’s take a look at the Commanders in our NFC divisional round scouting report for the 2024 season.

Washington Commanders

2024 season (13-5)

Week 1: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers37-20
Week 2: Defeated New York Giants21-18
Week 3: Defeated Cincinnati Bengals38-33
Week 4: Defeated Arizona Cardinals42-14
Week 5: Defeated Cleveland Browns34-13
Week 6: Lost to Baltimore Ravens30-23
Week 7: Defeated Carolina Panthers40-7
Week 8: Defeated Chicago Bear18-15
Week 9: New York Giants lose, 27-22
Week 10: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers28-27
Week 11: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles26-18
Week 12: Lost to Dallas Cowboys34-26
Week 13: Defeated Tennessee Titans42-19
Week 14: GOODBYE
Week 15: Defeated New Orleans Saints20-19
Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles defeated, 36-33
Week 17: Defeated Atlanta Falcons30-24 (OT)
Week 18: Loss of the Dallas Cowboys, 23-19
NFC Wild Card: Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated, 23-20

Statistics:

• 5th in points scored, 18th in points allowed
• 10th in DVOA
• 6th in offensive DVOA (9th in passing DVOA, 7th in running DVOA)
• 23rd in defensive DVOA (20th pass DVOA, 26th in run DVOA)
• 9th in special teams DVOA

For the first time since 2016, the Washington Commanders finished the regular season with a winning record. Even then, the record was barely over .500, finishing the year 8-7-1. Their last playoff appearance was in 2020, when they won the NFC East with a 7-9 record, but would lose to the Bucs in the Wild Card round. This time, things are very different.

It all starts at the quarterback position. Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, was selected by the franchise with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He got off to a good 4-1 start, putting to rest early concerns about his rawness.

The Commanders hit a rough patch in November, going 1-3 that month and falling to 7-5 with their playoff hopes in the air. Since then, they have won six straight, finishing the season 12-5 and beating Tampa Bay on the road last week in their Wild Card game.

Daniels is the team’s leader this season, making plays and leading comebacks. Daniels has led the team to four game-winning drives this year, including one last week. He had a fantastic rookie year, throwing for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. What makes him just as dangerous is his legs, as he led the Commanders in rushing with 891 yards and six touchdowns, an average of six yards per carry.

Starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. was right on Daniels’ heels in yards, passing for 799 with eight touchdowns and averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The Commanders signed running back Austin Ekeler and he was a useful replacement for Robinson, passing for 367 yards and four touchdowns, but he was just as good as a receiver, getting 35 catches for 366 yards.

Speaking of receivers, receiver Terry McLaurin had arguably his best season in Washington. Although his yards were not at his peak (1,096), he scored a career-high 13 touchdowns and became Daniels’ favorite target. Another of his favorite targets is former Detroit Lion Zach Ertz. Remember when he was on the roster for the NFC Championship Game last season? Well, he seems to be doing just fine in Washington, getting 66 catches for 654 yards and seven touchdowns this season as the team’s number two receiver.

In defense, three players immediately stood out to me. Linebacker Dante Fowler is having his best season since 2019. He leads the team in sacks with 10.5 and even has a 67-yard pick-six. He helped put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks, particularly on linebacker Frankie Luvu, who has eight sacks. Third is another rookie, cornerback Mike Sainristil, who leads the team in pass deflections (14) and interceptions (2). His play has shown good and bad, but he will be a tough matchup for Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot.

Injury Notes

Key players excluded: WR Noah Brown (IR/internal)

Key players to watch: K Austin Seibert (IR/groin), WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring), DT Daron Payne (finger)

The commander injury report is somewhat light heading into the next round. Although several players were included in the report last week, none were listed as inactive. Currently there are a few players on Commanders IR, but two stood out to me. Receiver Noah Brown suffered an internal injury in Week 13 and the team’s third-best receiver is out for the season.

Their kicker and former Lion, Austin Seibert, suffered a groin injury in November and is eligible to return. But he has not yet returned to training, and it is unclear whether he will return this season. Zane Gonzalez replaced him for six games and scored just 5 of 7 with a long of 48.

Wide receiver Jamison Crowder was the only player questionable before the Wild Card game, and he ended up playing, so I would expect him to play this week as well.

The biggest injury the Commanders are dealing with is defensive tackle Daron Payne. Payne injured his thumb against the Bucs and would miss time and return. After the match, Payne shared the x-ray of his thumb and the top part of his thumb was not connected to the rest of his hand. The fact that he came back is crazy, and while using his fingers is important for a defensive lineman, maybe he could play with a club. Keep an eye on him this week with a short week of training.

Greater strength: Strategist

Daniels is by far the best player on this team. His rookie season was impressive and without his play, this team would not be the same. His ability to keep the game alive with his legs is dangerous. He doesn’t engage in the run when leaving the pocket, often keeping his eyes downfield to make a play through the air. While this is a good thing, he also has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long and make unnecessary sacks. He was sacked 47 times during the regular season, more than all but five quarterbacks. However, when Daniels runs, he is difficult to bring down because he is 6-foot-4 and his speed is something else.

Another good thing about him is the confidence he has not only in himself, but also in his teammates. He’s not afraid to shoot and he can trust his teammates to play jump ball. Winning drives are difficult for any quarterback to pull off, and confidence is very important in these scenarios. Having four this season – including one on a hilarious Hail Mary against the Bears – is impressive. You can’t count out Daniels and this team until you see zeros on that clock.

Biggest weakness: Run in defense

One of the biggest problems with this team is their defense, primarily their run defense. This is their lowest ranking in DVOA (26th), and they have the fifth-lowest PFF run defense rating (55.1). Commanders struggle to slow down their opponents on the ground when it comes to distance more than score. Although they are tied with the Lions in allowing 18 rushing touchdowns (11th most) in the league, the rest of their numbers aren’t too promising.

They rank 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) and 30th in yards per carry allowed (4.8). They also allowed the seventh-most rushing plays of 20+ yards (14). Only one member of the team has a defensive run rating above 75 PFF and that is linebacker Bobby Wagner (91.4). Wagner can’t do it alone, as he’ll need support from the rest of the team to take on this explosive Lions offense, which dominates on the field.

Key match: Lions pass attack vs. Commanders pass defense

While the Lions’ ground attack versus the Commanders’ run defense will be the story everyone is talking about, I think the passing game for Detroit will need to be explosive. The run can only work for so long, and for it to work at its best, the passing game needs to be efficient and strong. Commanders’ pass defense, despite the low DVOA rating, is not something to be scoffed at.

They are tied for the fifth-lowest completion percentage allowed (61.9) and have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (189.5). It won’t be easy for receivers to get open either, as Commanders cornerbacks Sainristil and Marshon Lattimore will be tough matchups for Lions receivers St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Lions wide receiver Tim Patrick could become a factor in this game, or perhaps tight end Sam LaPorta become a big target in the game.

If Detroit can get Washington to respect the pass a little more, that could mean lighter cards for the running backs. If Commanders are able to press receivers and block them at the line, forcing Goff to hold on to the ball longer than he wants, the defensive line can come home for sacks. It will be difficult for the Commanders to slow down this Lions offense, but it starts with the passing game and forces Detroit to rely on the ground game ultimately.

Vegas line for Sunday: The Lions favored by 8.5 points